Strategic or Confused Firms? Evidence from Missing Transactions in Uganda

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Almunia, Miguel; Hjort, Jonas; Knebelmann, Justine; Tian, Lin
• 署名单位: CUNEF Universidad; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; University College London; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); INSEAD Business School
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01180
• 发表日期: 2024-01
• 页码: 256-265
• 关键词: state capacity; tax; taxation; revenue; audit

摘要

Are firms sophisticated maximizers, or do they appear to make mistakes? Using transaction data from Ugandan value-added tax returns, we show that sellers and buyers report different amounts 79% of the time, despite invoices being easily cross-checked. Our estimates suggest that most firms are advantageous misreporters, but that 25% are disadvantageous misreporters who systematically overreport own sales minus purchases such that their tax liability increases. Similarly, many firms-especially disadvantageous misreporters-fail to VAT-report imported inputs they themselves reported at Customs, increasing their liability. On net, unilateral VAT misreporting cost Uganda about US$384 million in foregone 2013-2016 tax revenue.