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作者：Bundorf, M. Kate; DeMatteis, Jill; Miller, Grant; Polyakova, Maria; Streeter, Jialu L.; Wivagg, Jonathan
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Westat; Stanford University
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作者：Yang, Mu-Jeung; Bertanha, Marinho; Seegert, Nathan; Gaulin, Maclean; Looney, Adam; Orleans, Brian; Pavia, Andrew T.; Stratford, Kristina; Samore, Matthew; Alder, Steven
作者单位：University of Oklahoma System; University of Oklahoma - Norman; University of Notre Dame; Utah System of Higher Education; University of Utah
摘要：We provide a method to track the active prevalence of COVID-19 in real time, correcting for time-varying sample selection in symptom-based testing data and incomplete tracking of recovered cases and fatalities. Our method only requires publicly available data on positive testing rates in combination with one parameter, which we estimate based on a representative randomized sample of nearly 10,000 individuals tested in Utah in May and June 2020. We validate our method using external studies in ...
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作者：Huang, Wei; Pan, Yinghao; Zhou, Yi
作者单位：Peking University; Renmin University of China
摘要：We investigate how exposure to the One-Child Policy (OCP) during early adulthood affects marriage and fertility in China. Exploring fertility penalties across provinces over time and the different implementations by ethnicity, we show that the OCP significantly increases the unmarried rate among the Han ethnicity but not among the minorities. The OCP increases Han-minority marriages in regions where Han-minority couples are allowed an additional child, but the impact is smaller in other region...
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作者：Hagemann, Andreas
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：I introduce a simple permutation procedure to test conventional (nonsharp) hypotheses about the effect of a binary treatment in the presence of a finite number of large, heterogeneous clusters when the treatment effect is identified by comparisons across clusters. The procedure asymptotically controls size by applying a level-adjusted permutation test to a suitable statistic. The adjusted permutation test is easy to implement in practice and performs well at conventional levels of significance...
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作者：Brownback, Andy; Imas, Alex; Kuhn, Michael A.
作者单位：University of Arkansas System; University of Arkansas Fayetteville; University of Chicago; University of Oregon
摘要：We conduct a field experiment with low-income shoppers to study how behavioral interventions can improve the effectiveness of healthy food subsidies. Our unique design enables us to deliver subsidies both before and during grocery shopping. We examine the effects of two nonrestrictive changes to the choice environment: giving shoppers agency over the subsidy they receive and introducing a waiting period before a subsidized shopping trip to prompt deliberation about upcoming purchases. These in...
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作者：Callaway, Brantly; Li, Tong
作者单位：University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; Vanderbilt University
摘要：During the early part of the COVID-19 pandemic, national andlocal governments introduced a number of policies to combat the spread ofCOVID-19. In this paper, we propose a new approach to bound the effectsof such early-pandemic policies on COVID-19 cases and other outcomeswhile dealing with complications arising from (i) limited availability ofCOVID-19 tests, (ii) differential availability of COVID-19 tests acrosslocations, and (iii) eligibility requirements for individuals to be tested. Weuse ...
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作者：Genesove, David; Hansen, James
作者单位：Hebrew University of Jerusalem; University of Melbourne
摘要：We shed light on housing price inertia by investigating how the home-sale mechanism affects housing price dynamics. Using Australian data, we find that auction prices forecast better and display less momentum than negotiated prices. These findings are robust to alternative price measurements and different sample selection corrections. Motivated by microtheory that predicts different weights for buyer and seller values in auction and negotiated prices, we decompose housing prices into two diffu...
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作者：Candian, Giacomo; De Leo, Pierre
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Using survey data, we document that predictable exchange rate forecast errors are responsible for the uncovered interest parity (UIP) puzzle and its reversal at longer horizons. We develop a general-equilibrium model based on shock misperception and overextrapolative beliefs that reconciles these and other major exchange rate puzzles. These beliefs distortions generate both under- and over-reaction of expectations that account for the predictability of forecast errors about interest rates, exc...
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作者：Ma, Xiao; Muendler, Marc-Andreas; Nakab, Alejandro
作者单位：Peking University; Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：Export activity shapes workers' experience-wage profiles. Using employer-employee and customs data for Brazilian manufacturing, we document that workers' experience-wage profiles are steeper at exporters than at non-exporters and, among exporters, steeper at exporters shipping to high-income destinations. We develop and quantify a model featuring worker-firm wage bargaining, export-market entry by multi-worker firms, and human capital accumulation by workers to interpret the data. Human capita...
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作者：Nielsen, Carsten S.; Sebald, Alexander C.; Sorensen, Peter N.
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; Copenhagen Business School
摘要：We construct and run an experiment to test the most basic choiceeffect predicted by salience theory. Subjects allocate wealth between arisky and a safe investment. While we vary an apparent payoff ratio to in-fluence salience, treatments have economically equivalent consequences.Most other theories of behavior then predict zero effect. Our experimen-tal findings are strongly consistent with the behavioral implication of acontinuous version of salience theory. We provide a novel structural es-t...
