One-Child Policy, Marriage Distortion, and Welfare Loss

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Huang, Wei; Pan, Yinghao; Zhou, Yi
• 署名单位: Peking University; Renmin University of China
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01332
• 发表日期: 2025-09
• 页码: 1341-1355
• 关键词: sex-ratios; CHINA; divorce; MARKET; fertility; IMPACT; price

摘要

We investigate how exposure to the One-Child Policy (OCP) during early adulthood affects marriage and fertility in China. Exploring fertility penalties across provinces over time and the different implementations by ethnicity, we show that the OCP significantly increases the unmarried rate among the Han ethnicity but not among the minorities. The OCP increases Han-minority marriages in regions where Han-minority couples are allowed an additional child, but the impact is smaller in other regions. Finally, the deadweight loss caused by lower fertility accounts for 10% of annual household incomes, and policy-induced fewer marriages contribute to 30% of the fertility decline.