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作者：Ferreira, Leonardo N.; Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Ricco, Giovanni
作者单位：Central Bank of Brazil; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; University of Warwick
摘要：We propose a Bayesian approach to Local Projections (LPs) that optimally addresses the empirical bias-variance trade-off intrinsic in the choice between direct and iterative methods. Bayesian Local Projections (BLPs) regularize LP regressions via informative priors and estimate impulse response functions that capture the properties of the data more accurately than iterative VARs. BLPs preserve the flexibility of LPs while retaining a degree of estimation uncertainty comparable to Bayesian VARs...
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作者：Batista, Catia; Vicente, Pedro C.
作者单位：Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：Rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa are typically underserved by financial services. Mobile money brings a substantial reduction in the transaction costs of remittances. We follow the introduction of mobile money for the first time in rural villages of Mozambique using a randomized field experiment. We find that mobile money increased migration out of these villages, where we observe lower agricultural activity and investment. At the same time, remittances received and welfare of rural household...
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作者：Currie, Janet; Zhang, Jonathan
作者单位：Princeton University; Duke University; US Department of Veterans Affairs; Veterans Health Administration (VHA)
摘要：We use data from the Veterans Administration to examine the efficacy of primary care providers (PCPs). Leveraging quasi-random assignment of veterans to PCPs, we measure effectiveness using ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) and hospitalizations/emergency department (ED) visits for mental health or circulatory conditions. PCPs' variation along these dimensions predicts future outcomes. For example, a 1 standard deviation improvement in mental health effectiveness reduces patient risk ...
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作者：Bundick, Brent; Smith, A. Lee
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
摘要：In a macroeconomic model with drifting long-run inflation expectations, the anchoring of inflation expectations manifests in two testable predictions. First, expectations about inflation far in the future should no longer respond to news about current inflation. Second, better anchored inflation expectations weaken the relationship between unemployment and inflation, flattening the reduced-form Phillips curve. We evaluate both predictions and find that the Federal Reserve's communication of a ...
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作者：Curci, Federico; Masera, Federico
作者单位：CUNEF Universidad; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：In this paper we study the effect of violent crime on residential and firms location decisions and their implications for segregation in cities. We do so by proposing a new instrument to exogenously predict violent crime in city centers. We base our instrument on chemical and medical evidence that links local characteristics of the soil to lead poisoning and aggression. We show that the increase in violent crime between 1960 and 1990 due to lead poisoning moved almost 8 million people to the s...
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作者：Brodeur, Abel; Yousaf, Hasin
作者单位：University of Ottawa; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：In this paper, we investigate the economic consequences of massshootings. We find that shootings have negative effects on targeted coun-ties' economies. Estimates using three different comparison groups yieldsimilar results. Examining the mechanisms, we find that residents of tar-geted areas: (i) develop pessimistic views of financial and local businessconditions; and (ii) are more likely to report poor mental health, whichhinders usual activities such as work, suggesting that shootings lead t...
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作者：Mueller, Ulrich K.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：The paper combines extreme value theory for the smallest and largest k observations for some given k > 1 with a normal approximation for the average of the remaining observations to construct a more robust alternative to the usual t-test. The new test is found to control size much more successfully in small samples compared to existing methods. This holds for the canonical inference for the mean problem based on an i.i.d. sample, but also when comparing two population means and when conducting...
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作者：Bartels, Charlotte; Kersting, Felix; Wolf, Nikolaus
作者单位：Leipzig University; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Humboldt University of Berlin; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We study the dynamics of capital accumulation, income inequality, capital concentration, and voting up to 1914. Based on new panel data for Prussian regions, we reevaluate the famous revisionism debate between orthodox Marxists and their critics. We show that changes in capital accumulation led to a rise in the capital share and income inequality, as predicted by orthodox Marxists. But against their predictions, this neither led to further capital concentration nor more votes for the socialist...
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作者：Xie, Shihan
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：This paper proposes and estimates a dynamic model of household inflation expectations with information frictions and time-varying parameters, where households use a Bayesian learning model to form and update inflation expectations. The model decomposes households' inflation expectation formation process into a learning component, a noisy signal component, and a measurement component. Model-implied household inflation expectations provide a robust fit for the expectation-augmented Phillips curv...
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作者：Bohren, J. Aislinn; Haggag, Kareem; Imas, Alex; Pope, Devin G.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Chicago
摘要：We study inaccurate beliefs as a source of discrimination. Economists typically characterize discrimination as stemming from a taste-based (preference) or accurate statistical (belief-based) source. Although individuals may have inaccurate beliefs about how relevant characteristics (e.g., productivity, signals) are correlated with group identity, fewer than 7% of empirical discrimination papers in economics consider the possibility of such inaccurate statistical discrimination. Using theory an...
