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作者：Cohen, Jon; Hachem, Kinda; Richardson, Gary
作者单位：University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Irvine
摘要：The collapse of long-term lending relationships amplified the Great Depression. We demonstrate this by developing a new measure of lending relationships that can be calculated from widely available data at any level of aggregation. Our approach exploits differences in the responsiveness of loan rates to bank funding costs and is supported by historical evidence and theoretical arguments. The new measure reveals that the marginal impact of bank suspensions on economic activity was higher in mor...
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作者：Kurmann, Andre; Sims, Eric
作者单位：Drexel University; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper documents large revisions in a widely used series of utilization-adjusted total factor productivity (TFP) by Fernald (2014) and shows that these revisions can materially affect empirical results about the effects of news shocks. We trace these revisions to changes in estimated factor utilization that are evocative of cyclical measurement issues with productivity. We propose an alternative identification that is robust to these measurement issues. Applied to U.S. data, the shock pred...
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作者：Carranza, Eliana; Meeks, Robyn
作者单位：The World Bank; Duke University
摘要：Overloaded electrical systems are a major source of unreliable power. Using a randomized saturation design, we estimate the impact of compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) on electricity reliability and household electricity consumption in the Kyrgyz Republic. Greater saturation of CFLs within a transformer leads to fewer outages, a technological externality benefiting all households, regardless of individual adoption. Spillovers in CFL adoption further reduce electricity consumption, contributing ...
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作者：Daniele, Gianmarco; Mookerjee, Sulagna; Tommasi, Denni
作者单位：Bocconi University; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Binghamton University, SUNY; Monash University
摘要：We investigate whether improvements in street-food safety can be achieved by providing information to vendors in the form of a training. Among randomly assigned vendors in Kolkata, India, we find large improvements in knowledge and awareness but little change in observed behavior. We provide two main explanations for these findings. First, information acquisition by itself does not make it significantly easier for vendors to provide customers with safer food options. Second, although consumers...
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作者：Artiles, Miriam; Kleine-Rueschkamp, Lukas; Leon-Ciliotta, Gianmarco
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD); Barcelona School of Economics; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We estimate the effects of political accountability on the selection of politicians when accountability mechanisms are prone to political capture. We compare the characteristics of candidates running in municipalities where the previous incumbent was ousted from office through a recall referendum with those who run where the recall referendum failed by a small margin. Having a recalled incumbent in the previous term causes a negative selection of candidates in terms of their education and prev...
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作者：Bunnings, Christian; Schiele, Valentin
作者单位：Leibniz Association; RWI - Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; University of Paderborn
摘要：In this paper, we analyze the effect of light conditions on road accidents and estimate the long-run consequences of different time regimes for road safety. Identification is based on variation in light conditions induced by differences in sunrise and sunset times across space and time. We estimate that darkness causes annual costs of more than 500 pound million in Great Britain. By setting daylight saving time year-round, 8% of these costs could be saved. Thus, focusing solely on the short-ru...
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作者：Kovak, Brian K.; Oldenski, Lindsay; Sly, Nicholas
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Carnegie Mellon University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Georgetown University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We use firm-level data on U.S. multinationals to show how off-shoring affects domestic employment within and across firms. We introduce a new instrument for offshoring, bilateral tax treaties, which reduce the cost of offshore activities. We find substantial heterogeneity in effects. A 10% increase in affiliate employment drives a 1.3% increase in employment at the U.S. parent firm, with smaller effects at the industry and regional levels. In contrast, offshoring by vertical multinationals dri...
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作者：Bouton, Laurent; Conconi, Paola; Pino, Francisco; Zanardi, Maurizio
作者单位：Georgetown University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Universidad de Chile; Lancaster University
摘要：We study how electoral incentives affect policy choices on secondary issues, which only minorities of voters care intensely about. We develop a model in which office and policy-motivated politicians vote in favor of or against regulations on these issues. We derive conditions under which politicians flip-flop, voting according to their policy preferences at the beginning of their terms but in line with the preferences of single-issue minorities as they approach reelection. To assess the eviden...
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作者：Liu, Li; Lockwood, Ben; Almunia, Miguel; Tam, Eddy H. F.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Oxford; University of Warwick; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); CUNEF Universidad
摘要：Using administrative tax records for U.K. businesses, we document both bunching in annual turnover below the VAT registration threshold and persistent voluntary registration by almost half of the firms below the threshold. We develop a conceptual framework that can simultaneously explain these two apparently conflicting facts. The framework also predicts that higher intermediate input shares, lower product-market competition, and a lower share of business to consumer sales lead to voluntary re...
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作者：Hanspal, Tobin; Weber, Annika; Wohlfart, Johannes
作者单位：Vienna University of Economics & Business; Goethe University Frankfurt; University of Copenhagen; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Danish Finance Institute
摘要：We survey a representative sample of U.S. households to study how exposure to the COVID-19 stock market crash affects expectations and planned behavior. Wealth shocks are associated with upward adjustments of expectations about retirement age, desired working hours, and household debt but have only small effects on expected spending. We provide correlational and experimental evidence that beliefs about the duration of the stock market recovery shape households' expectations about their own wea...
