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作者：Ketz, Philipp; McCloskey, Adam
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Paris School of Economics; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：We introduce adaptive confidence intervals on a parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters, such as coefficients on control variables, with known signs. Our confidence intervals are trivial to compute and can provide significant length reductions relative to standard ones when the nuisance parameters are small. At the same time, they entail minimal length increases at any parameter values. We apply our confidence intervals to the linear regression model, prove their uniform v...
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作者：Miller, Joshua B.; Sanjurjo, Adam
作者单位：University of Melbourne; Universitat d'Alacant
摘要：The canonical hot hand fallacy result was recently reversed, based largely on a single statistic, and a data set that was underpowered for individual-level testing. Here we perform a more robust analysis, testing whether hot hand performance exists across (i) data sets: four different controlled shooting experiments, (ii) time: multiple sessions per individual spread across a six month gap, and (iii) various (improved) approaches to statistical testing. We find strong evidence of hot hand perf...
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作者：Jiao, Yang; Liu, Zhikuo; Tian, Zhiwei; Wang, Xiaxin
作者单位：Fudan University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：This paper studies the impacts of the 2018 U.S. tariff surges on export prices and adjustments of sales across different markets of Chinese exporters. The finding that U.S. tariffs did not affect the free-on-board price of Chinese exports is robust to controlling for firm-related fixed effects. While firms' exports to the United States dropped significantly, exports to the EU increased moderately and domestic sales or exports to other foreign markets were barely affected. Finally, by surveying...
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作者：Bahar, Dany; Hauptmann, Andreas; Ozguzel, Cem; Rapoport, Hillel
作者单位：Brown University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD); Paris School of Economics; Universite Paris Cite
摘要：During the early 1990s, Germany offered temporary protection to 700,000 Yugoslavian refugees fleeing war. By 2000, many had been repatriated. We exploit this natural experiment to investigate the role of returning migrants in boosting export performance upon their return. Using confidential German administrative data, we find that industries with 10% more returning refugees exhibit larger exports between the pre- and postwar periods by 1% to 1.6%. We use exogenous allocation rules for asylum s...
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作者：Frias, Judith A.; Kaplan, David S.; Verhoogen, Eric; Alfaro-Serrano, David
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; Columbia University; Cornerstone Research
摘要：This paper draws on employer-employee and longitudinal plant data from Mexico to investigate the impact of exports on wage premiums, defined as wages above what workers would receive elsewhere in the labor market. We decompose plant-level average wages into a component reflecting skill composition and a component reflecting wage premiums. Using the late-1994 peso devaluation interacted with initial export propensity as a source of exogenous changes in exports, we find that exports have a signi...
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作者：Berazneva, Julia; Byker, Tanya S.
作者单位：Middlebury College
摘要：We examine the effect of forest loss around the time of birth on infant mortality and the early childhood health of children in rural Nigeria. We find that forest loss leads to an increase in neonatal mortality-one standard deviation of forest loss is associated with a 9%-15% increase in the likelihood of death within the first month of life. The mechanism linking forest loss to infant death is maternal exposure to malaria when the child is in utero. Such exposure also results in worse birth o...
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作者：Qu, Zhongjun; Yoon, Jungmo; Perron, Pierre
作者单位：Boston University; Hanyang University
摘要：We propose methods to estimate and make inferences on conditional quantile processes for models with both nonparametric and (locally or globally) linear components. We derive their asymptotic properties, optimal bandwidths, and uniform confidence bands over quantiles allowing for robust bias correction. Our framework covers the sharp regression discontinuity design, which is used to study the effects of unemployment insurance benefits extensions, focusing on heterogeneity over quantiles and co...
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作者：Zrill, Lanny
作者单位：Carleton University
摘要：Simple functional forms for utility require restrictive structural assumptions that are often contrary to observed behavior. Even so, they are widely used in applied economic research. I address this issue using a two-part adaptive experimental design to compare the predictions of a popular parametric model of decision making under risk to those of non-parametric bounds on indifference curves. Interpreting the latter as an approximate upper bound, I find the parametric model sacrifices very li...
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作者：Afrouzi, Hassan; Caloi, Luigi
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：We show that the cyclicality of output growth is a sufficient predictor for the cyclicality of markups in models that micro-found variable markups through dynamic trade-offs. We use data on markups from the U.S. as well as survey data on firms' expectations from New Zealand to test the predictions of these models and find evidence in favor of their mechanisms. Finally, we study the implications of these mechanisms for cyclicality of markups in a calibrated general equilibrium model. In particu...
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作者：Chandra, Amitabh; Kakani, Pragya; Sacarny, Adam
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Columbia University
摘要：We develop a framework to measure the role of hospital allocation in racial disparities in health care and use it to study Black and white heart attack patients. Black patients receive care at lower-performing hospitals than white patients. However, over two decades, the performance gap between hospitals treating Black and white patients shrank by over two-thirds. This progress is due to more rapid performance improvement at hospitals that tended to treat Black patients rather than reallocatio...
