A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence from Controlled Settings

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Miller, Joshua B.; Sanjurjo, Adam
• 署名单位: University of Melbourne; Universitat d'Alacant
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01280
• 发表日期: 2024-11
• 页码: 1607-1619
• 关键词: basketball market believe; statistical-analysis; gamblers fallacy; hitting streaks; misperception; performance; baseball; TRENDS

摘要

The canonical hot hand fallacy result was recently reversed, based largely on a single statistic, and a data set that was underpowered for individual-level testing. Here we perform a more robust analysis, testing whether hot hand performance exists across (i) data sets: four different controlled shooting experiments, (ii) time: multiple sessions per individual spread across a six month gap, and (iii) various (improved) approaches to statistical testing. We find strong evidence of hot hand performance, both across data sets and within individuals across time. Moreover, in a study of beliefs, we find that expert observers can successfully predict which shooters get the hottest.