Fueling expectations: The causal impact of gas prices on Inflation Expectations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jo, Yoon Joo; Klopack, Ben
• 署名单位: Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103797
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Inflation expectations; Survey; Gas prices; Gas tax holiday

摘要

We investigate the effects of temporary state-level gas tax suspensions on inflation expectations. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we show that households in states that lower the gas tax reduce their inflation expectations, but the impact of the policy depends on how much of the tax cut was passed through to prices. We provide new causal evidence of the link between gas prices and household inflation expectations and demonstrate that gas prices play a more significant role in shaping inflation expectations than previously suggested in the literature. We also show experimental evidence that informing households about the tax reduction leads them to adjust their inflation expectations downward. However, we do not find evidence that temporary gas tax suspensions had a stimulative effect on consumption. These findings underscore the potential for alternative policy levers to influence household beliefs and behavior.