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作者：Bachmann, Rudiger
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Enders et al. (2019b) find that small expansionary monetary policy surprises lead to increases in firms' price and production expectations; vice versa for small contractionary monetary surprises. For larger monetary surprises of either direction, the reaction of price and production expectations tends to be dampened back to zero. This finding is explained with a differential, size-dependent mix in monetary policy surprises as regards their actual monetary policy content and their Delphic infor...
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作者：Lamla, Michael J.; Vinogradov, Dmitri V.
作者单位：University of Essex; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Glasgow; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
摘要：Little is known on how and whether central bank announcements affect consumers' beliefs about policy-relevant economic figures. This paper focuses on consumers' perceptions and expectations of inflation and interest rates and confidence therein. Based on a sound identification (running surveys shortly before and after communication events), and relying on above 15,000 observations, spanning over 12 FOMC press conferences between December 2015 and June 2018, we document the impact of the centra...
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作者：Benigno, Pierpaolo; Robatto, Roberto
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：The joint supply of public and private liquidity is examined when financial intermediaries issue both riskless and risky debt and the economy is vulnerable to liquidity crises. Government interventions in the form of asset purchases and deposit insurance are equivalent (in the sense that they sustain the same equilibrium allocations), increase welfare, and, if fiscal capacity is sufficiently large, eliminate liquidity crises. In contrast, restricting intermediaries to investing in low-risk pro...
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作者：Sedlacek, Petr; Sterk, Vincent
作者单位：University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; University College London
摘要：The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act slashed tax rates on business income and introduced immediate expensing of investments. Using a quantitative heterogeneous-firms model, we investigate the long-run effects of such tax reforms on firm dynamics. We find that they can substantially increase business dynamism, potentially offsetting the large decline in the U.S. startup rate observed over recent decades. This result is driven by indirect equilibrium forces: the tax reform stimulates firm entry, leadi...
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作者：Khalil, Makram
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Using the IMF CPIS data on cross-border financial assets, I find that the share of equity in a bilateral portfolio decreases with bilateral trade. Strengthening trade linkages is strongly related to rising holdings of foreign debt but not so to holdings of foreign equity. The results are rationalised by a model of international portfolios in which deepening trade integration increases the exposure of the household consumption basket to deteriorating terms of trade. With rising trade, a suffici...
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作者：Bassetto, Marco
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Forward guidance has been suggested as a form of commitment (Odyssean) by the policymaker or as a way of conveying information (Delphic). I analyze the interaction between households and the central bank as a game in which the central bank sends messages. Without private information, the set of equilibrium payoffs is independent of any announcements: Pure Odyssean forward guidance is redundant. With private information, communication can have social value. Forward guidance is well suited to le...
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作者：Nakata, Taisuke; Schmidt, Sebastian
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; European Central Bank
摘要：In an economy with an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint, the anticipation of future ZLB episodes creates a trade-off for discretionary central banks between inflation and output stabilization. As a consequence, inflation systematically falls below target even when the policy rate is above zero. Appointing Rogoffs (1985) conservative central banker mitigates this deflationary bias away from the ZLB and enhances welfare by improving allocations both at and away from the ZLB....
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作者：Ehrmann, Michael; Gaballo, Gaetano; Hoffmann, Peter; Strasser, Georg
作者单位：European Central Bank; European Central Bank; Bank of France; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Central banks have used different types of forward guidance. This paper reports cross-country evidence showing that, in general, forward guidance mutes the response of government bond yields to macroeconomic news. However, calendar-based guidance with a short horizon counter-intuitively raises it. Using a stylized model where agents learn from market signals, it shows that the public release of more precise information about future rates lowers the informativeness of market signals and, as a c...
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作者：Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; European University Institute
摘要：If the government's willingness to stabilize debt is waning, while the central bank is adamant about keeping inflation low, the economy enters a vicious spiral of higher inflation, monetary tightening, recession, and further debt accumulation. The mere possibility of this conflict represents a drag on the economy. A commitment to inflate away the debt accumulated during a large recession leads to welfare improvements and lower uncertainty by separating long-run fiscal sustainability from the s...
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作者：Dyrda, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：Taxation and The Life Cycle of Firms by Erosa and Gonzalez provides a coherent framework to study the effects of different forms of taxing capital income on the life cycle of firms. In the quantitative part, the paper evaluates macroeconomic effects of eliminating the corporate income tax and replacing it with the uniform tax on all other forms of capital income. In this discussion I raise two issues. First, I point to the limitations of the modeling approach, which focuses only on entities su...
