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作者：Agarwal, Sumit; Chomsisengphet, Souphala; Liu, Chunlin; Song, Changcheng; Souleles, Nicholas S.
作者单位：National University of Singapore; United States Department of the Treasury; Office of the Comptroller of the Currency; Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Reno; National University of Singapore; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using a unique panel dataset that contains comprehensive information about the relationships between a large bank and its credit card customers, we show that relationship accounts exhibit lower probabilities of default and attrition, and have higher utilization rates, than non-relationship accounts. Dynamic information about changes in the behavior of a customer's other accounts at the same bank helps predict the behavior of the credit card account over time. These results imply that relations...
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作者：Haltiwanger, John
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
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作者：Barnichon, Regis; Matthes, Christian
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：A method to estimate the dynamic effects of structural shocks is proposed: Functional Approximation of Impulse Responses (FAIR) consists in directly estimating the moving average representation of the data by approximating impulse responses with a set of basis functions. FAIR can offer a number of benefits over alternative impulse response estimators, including VARs and Local Projections: (i) parsimony and efficiency, (ii) ability to summarize the dynamic effects of shocks with a few moments, ...
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作者：Atalay, Enghin; Phongthiengtham, Phai; Sotelo, Sebastian; Tannenbaum, Daniel
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln
摘要：Using newspaper job ad text from 1960 to 2000, we measure job tasks and the adoption of individual information and communication technologies (ICTs). Most new technologies are associated with an increase in nonroutine analytic tasks, and a decrease in nonroutine interactive, routine cognitive, and routine manual tasks. We embed these interactions in a quantitative model of worker sorting across occupations and technology adoption. Through the lens of the model, the arrival of ICTs broadly shif...
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作者：Champagne, Julien; Sekkel, Rodrigo
作者单位：Bank of Canada
摘要：Using narrative evidence with a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff projections (1974-2015), we construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks and estimate the effects of monetary policy in Canada. We show it is crucial to account for the break in the conduct of monetary policy caused by the announcement of inflation targeting in 1991. A 100-basis-point increase in our new shock series leads to a 1.0 percent peak decrease in real GDP and a 0.5 perc...
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作者：Bursian, Dirk; Faia, Ester
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：Trust in policy makers fluctuates significantly over the cycle, evaporating during crises and affecting the transmission mechanism. Despite this, it is absent from the literature. We build a monetary model where trust emerges endogenously as an equilibrium of a strategic interaction (moral hazard with uncertainty on policy actions) between betrayal-averse agents and policy makers with stochastic incentives to deviate, conditioned on past policy outcomes as signals. A fall in trust, due to shoc...
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作者：Evans, George W.; McGough, Bruce
作者单位：University of Oregon; University of St Andrews
摘要：The robustness of stability under learning to observability of exogenous shocks is examined. Regardless of observability assumptions, the minimal state variable solution is robustly stable under learning provided the expectational feedback is not both positive and large, while the nonfundamental solution is never robustly stable. Overlapping generations and New Keynesian models are considered and concerns raised in Cochrane (2011, 2017) are addressed. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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作者：Hanley, Douglas
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
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作者：Tonetti, Christopher
作者单位：Stanford University
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作者：Berentsen, Aleksander; Kraenzlin, Sebastien; Mueller, Benjamin
作者单位：University of Basel; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：In response to the financial crisis of 2007/08, all major central banks decreased interest rates to historically low levels and created large excess reserves. Central bankers and academics currently discuss how to implement monetary policy, going forward. We find that paying interest on reserves (IOR) is optimal if the central bank has full fiscal support. If the central bank has no fiscal support, reducing reserves is optimal. This can be achieved by reserve-absorbing operations, which hold t...
