Central bank announcements: Big news for little people?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lamla, Michael J.; Vinogradov, Dmitri V.
• 署名单位: University of Essex; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Glasgow; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.08.014
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 21-38
• 关键词: perceptions; expectations; Central bank communication; consumers

摘要

Little is known on how and whether central bank announcements affect consumers' beliefs about policy-relevant economic figures. This paper focuses on consumers' perceptions and expectations of inflation and interest rates and confidence therein. Based on a sound identification (running surveys shortly before and after communication events), and relying on above 15,000 observations, spanning over 12 FOMC press conferences between December 2015 and June 2018, we document the impact of the central bank communication on the general public. While announcement events have no measurable direct effect on average beliefs, they make people more likely to receive news about the central bank's policy. In general, informed consumers tend to have lower perceptions and expectations, higher confidence and, at least for perceived inflation, smaller errors. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.