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作者：Mehrotra, Neil R.; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
作者单位：United States Department of the Treasury; Bocconi University
摘要：Historic levels of public debt and conditions of r < g for advanced economies have prompted a reassessment of debt sustainability. Using a continuous-time model in which the debt-to-GDP ratio is stochastic and r < g on average, we find that theoretical condi-tions for sustainability are not closely tied to common metrics of sustainability: the level of debt or whether r < g. However, when the primary surplus is bounded, a state-dependent threshold level of public debt determines sustainability...
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作者：Cui, Wei; Sterk, Vincent
作者单位：University of London; University College London
摘要：We study the effects of Quantitative Easing (QE) in a heterogeneous-agents model with liquid and partially liquid wealth, and nominal rigidities. The direct macroeconomic effect of QE is determined by the difference in marginal propensities to consume out of the two types of wealth, which is large according to empirical studies. Therefore, the effects of QE on aggregate output and inflation are significant, according to the model. Indeed, the estimated model reveals that QE interventions great...
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作者：Drenik, Andres; Perez, Diego J.
作者单位：Columbia University; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper studies the dollarization of prices in retail markets of emerging economies. We develop a model of the firm's optimal currency choice in retail markets in inflationary economies. We derive theoretical predictions regarding the optimality of dollar pricing, and test them using data from the largest e-trade platform in Latin America. Across coun-tries, price dollarization is positively correlated with asset dollarization and inflation, and negatively correlated with exchange rate vola...
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作者：Beutel, Johannes; Metiu, Norbert; Stockerl, Valentin
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Central bank communication about financial stability causally affects individuals' beliefs and risk-taking behavior, consistent with an expectations channel of financial stability communication. Individuals receiving a warning from the central bank in a randomized information experiment expect a higher probability of a financial crisis and reduce their demand for risky assets. This reduction is driven by downward revisions in individuals' expected Sharpe ratios due to lower expected returns an...
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作者：Benati, Luca
作者单位：University of Bern
摘要：Evidence from monetary VARs suggests that in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. the impact of monetary shocks on real house prices is about three to five times as large as that on real GDP. Although these trade-offs are not manifestly unfavorable, in the light of the large differences in the magnitudes of house prices and GDP fluctuations, a monetary policy of leaning against the former would inevitably entail significant losses in the latter. I use the identified VARs in order to explore the corr...
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作者：Jasova, Martina; Mendicino, Caterina; Supera, Dominik
作者单位：Columbia University; Charles University Prague; European Central Bank; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：A reduction in lender of last resort (LOLR) policy uncertainty positively affects bank lending and propagates to investment and employment. We exploit a unique policy that reduced uncertainty regarding the availability of future LOLR funding for banks as a quasi natural experiment. Using micro-level data on banks, firms and loans in Portugal, we generate cross-sectional variation in banks? exposure to uncertainty and find that the size of the haircut subsidy the gap between private market and ...
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作者：Roldan-Blanco, Pau; Gilbukh, Sonia
作者单位：Banco de Espana; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Baruch College (CUNY)
摘要：In a search model of firm dynamics, customer accumulation is shown to affect the life cycle of firms and the dynamics of markups in response to aggregate demand shocks. In the model, sellers of different sizes and productivities post dynamic pricing contracts to strike a balance between attracting new customers and exploiting pre-existing ones. Calibrated using establishment-level and micro-pricing data from the U.S. retail sector, the model provides a quantitatively good fit to the lifecycle ...
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作者：Bachmann, Ruediger; Bayer, Christian; Merkl, Christian; Seth, Stefan; Stueber, Heiko; Wellschmied, Felix
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; University of Bonn; University of Erlangen Nuremberg; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：Worker churn is procyclical in the German labor market. We study the plant-level connection of churn and employment growth using the new Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel from 1975 to 2014. Churn is V-shaped in employment growth. Through analyzing this pattern by worker skill, age, and tenure, we establish that churn is unlikely to result from plant reorganization but rather from uncertainty about match quality. In a dynamic labor demand framework with a time-to-hire friction, ch...
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作者：Benhima, Kenza; Poilly, Celine
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD)
摘要：We assess the role of demand noise (excessive optimism or pessimism about demand) together with supply noise (excessive optimism or pessimism about supply). To do so, we propose a methodology to decompose business cycles into supply, demand, supply noise and demand noise shocks, using a structural vector autoregression model. Key to our identification of both supply noise and demand noise is the use of sign restrictions on survey expectation errors about output growth and about inflation. We s...
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作者：Chen, Sihao; Devereux, Michael B.; Shi, Kang; Xu, Juanyi
作者单位：Fudan University; University of British Columbia; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：Empirical evidence suggests that for many countries, retail prices of traded goods are sticky in national currencies. Movements in exchange rates then cause deviations from the law of one price, and exchange rate misalignment, which cannot be corrected by monetary policy alone. This paper shows that a state contingent international tax policy can be combined with monetary policy to eliminate exchange rate misalignment and sustain a fully efficient welfare outcome. But this monetary-fiscal mix ...
