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作者：Albertini, Julien; Auray, Stephane; Bouakez, Hafedh; Eyquem, Aurelien
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon (ENS de LYON); Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1; Universite Jean Monnet; Universite Lyon 2; Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); Universite du Littoral-Cote-d'Opale; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; Institut Universitaire de France
摘要：We propose a model with involuntary unemployment, incomplete markets, and nominal rigidity, in which the effects of government spending are state-dependent. An increase in government purchases raises aggregate demand, tightens the labor market and reduces unemployment. This in turn lowers unemployment risk and thus precautionary saving, leading to a larger response of private consumption than in a model with perfect insurance. The output multiplier is further amplified through a composition ef...
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作者：Benati, Luca; Lucas, Robert E.; Pablo Nicolini, Juan; Weber, Warren
作者单位：University of Bern; University of Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; University of South Carolina System; University of South Carolina Columbia; Bank of Canada; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：A dataset comprising 38 countries and relatively long sample periods, which extend in some cases to over a century, is used to study the behavior of long-run demand for M1. For a large majority of the countries, the evidence supports the existence of a stable long-run relationship between the ratio of M1 to GDP and a short-term interest rate. The log-log specification provides a good characterization of the data, with the exception of periods featuring very low interest rates. An extension of ...
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作者：D'Erasmo, Pablo; Mendoza, Enrique G.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Infrequent but turbulent sovereign defaults on domestic creditors were a forgotten history in macroeconomics. We propose a Bewley model in which the government chooses debt and default on domestic and foreign creditors by balancing distributional incentives versus the benefits of debt for self-insurance, liquidity, and risk-sharing. A feedback mechanism links debt issuance, the debt distribution, the default decision, and risk premia. Calibrated to Eurozone data, the model is consistent with k...
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作者：Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas; Zhang, Lu
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：An equilibrium search model with credible bargaining, when calibrated to the mean and volatility of postwar unemployment rates, is a good start to understanding the unemployment crisis in the Great Depression. Drawing from rarely used data sources, this paper compiles historical monthly time series of U.S. unemployment rates, vacancy rates, and labor productivity, some of which date back to 1890. The frequency, persistence, and severity of the unemployment crises in the model are quantitativel...
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作者：Potter, Tristan
作者单位：Drexel University
摘要：Krueger and Mueller (2011) document that search effort declined with unemployment duration during the Great Recession. I show that variation in past effort explains this decline. Furthermore, job offers increase subsequent effort. These facts are inconsistent with standard models of search. I introduce a model of sequential search in which workers are uncertain about the offer arrival process and learn through search. Evolving beliefs influence search through two competing channels: the opport...
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作者：Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Robbins, Jacob A.; Wold, Ella Getz
作者单位：Brown University; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; BI Norwegian Business School
摘要：The macroeconomic data of the last fifty years have overturned at least two of Kaldor's famous stylized growth facts: constant interest rates, and a constant labor share. At the same time, the research of Piketty and others has introduced several new and surprising facts: an increase in the financial wealth-to-output ratio in the US, an increase in measured Tobin's Q, and a divergence between the marginal and average returns on capital. In this paper, we argue that these trends can be explaine...
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作者：Caines, Colin; Winkler, Fabian
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We characterize optimal monetary policy when agents learn about endogenous asset prices. Learning leads to inefficient asset price fluctuations and distortions in consumption and investment decisions. We find that the policy-relevant natural real interest rate increases with subjective asset price beliefs. Optimal monetary policy raises interest rates when expected capital gains are high, but does not eliminate deviations of asset prices from their fundamental value. When we add investment to ...
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作者：Correia, Isabel; De Fiore, Fiorella; Teles, Pedro; Tristani, Oreste
作者单位：Banco de Portugal; Universidade Catolica Portuguesa; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank
摘要：Credit subsidies are an alternative to interest rate and credit policies when dealing with high and volatile credit spreads. In a model where credit spreads move in response to shocks to the net worth of financial intermediaries, credit subsidies are able to stabilize those spreads avoiding repercussions on the real economy. Interest rate policy can be a substitute for credit subsidies but it is limited by the zero bound constraint. Credit subsi-dies overcome this constraint. They are superior...
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作者：Sims, Eric; Wu, Jing Cynthia
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a structural DSGE model to systematically study the principal tools of unconventional monetary policy - quantitative easing (QE), forward guidance, and negative terest rate policy (NIRP) - as well as the interactions between them. To generate the same output response, the requisite NIRP and forward guidance interventions are twice as as a conventional policy shock, which seems implausible in practice. In contrast, QE an endogenous feedback rule can alleviate the constraints on conve...
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作者：Franck, Raphael; Galor, Oded
作者单位：Hebrew University of Jerusalem; National Bureau of Economic Research; Brown University; Brown University
摘要：Is industrialization conducive for economic development in the long-run? Exploiting exogenous variation in the diffusion of steam engines across 19th century France, the research suggests that early industrialization has had an adverse effect on long-run prosperity, stemming from the negative impact of the adoption of unskilled-labor-intensive technologies in early stages of industrialization on contemporary levels of human capital and thus the incentive to adopt skill-intensive technologies. ...
