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作者：Fuchs-Schuendeln, Nicola; Haliassos, Michael
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Tilburg University
摘要：The German reunification experiment provided sudden access to previously unavailable financial products, supported by knowledgeable practitioners. This setting offers new perspectives on participation, inertia, and product diffusion. Controlling for characteristics, East Germans experienced a jump in securities participation to a level comparable to West Germans' participation immediately following reunification, and to an even higher level for consumer debt, while exhibiting inertia in previo...
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作者：Leeper, Eric M.; Leith, Campbell; Liu, Ding
作者单位：University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Glasgow; Southwestern University of Finance & Economics - China
摘要：The textbook optimal policy response to an increase in government debt is simple- monetary policy should actively target inflation, and fiscal policy should smooth taxes while ensuring debt sustainability. Such policy prescriptions presuppose an ability to commit. Without that ability, the temptation to use inflation surprises to offset monopoly and tax distortions, as well as to reduce the real value of government debt, creates a state-dependent inflationary bias problem. High debt levels and...
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作者：Rocheteau, Guillaume; Weill, Pierre-Olivier; Wong, Tsz-Nga
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：A New-Monetarist model is constructed with expenditure and unemployment risks that generates equilibria with non-degenerate distribution of money holdings. Distributional effects can overturn key insights of the model with degenerate distributions, e.g., the value of money depends on the income distribution; a one-time money injection raises aggregate real balances in the short run - price adjustments look sluggish; anticipated inflation can raise output and welfare; there can be a long-run tr...
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作者：Leeper, Eric M.; Zhou, Xuan
作者单位：University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research; Renmin University of China
摘要：We address the optimal marginal source of financing shocks that raise fiscal needs in the presence of a maturity structure for nominal government debt, distortionary taxes, and sticky prices. We find: (1) the importance of innovations in current and expected inflation that revalue debt increases with both the average maturity and the level of debt; (2) an analytical trade off between inflation and output-gap stabilization as a function of debt maturity; (3) at current debt levels and maturity ...
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作者：Rostek, Marzena
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
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作者：Cantore, Cristiano; Freund, Lukas B.
作者单位：Bank of England; University of Surrey; University of Cambridge
摘要：We propose a novel two-agent New Keynesian model to study the interaction of fiscal policy and household heterogeneity in a tractable environment. Workers can save in bonds subject to portfolio adjustment costs; firm ownership is concentrated among capitalists who do not supply labor. The model is consistent with micro data on empirical intertemporal marginal propensities to consume, and it avoids implausible profit income effects on labor supply. Relative to the traditional two-agent model, t...
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作者：Harmenberg, Karl; Oberg, Erik
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School; Uppsala University
摘要：In response to an adverse labor-market shock, a calibrated heterogeneous-agent model predicts that aggregate spending on durable goods falls mainly due to the ex-ante increase in income uncertainty caused by higher unemployment risk. In contrast, aggregate spending on nondurable goods falls mainly due to the ex-post income losses associated with realized unemployment spells. When households hold little liquid assets, the nondurable spending response is amplified, whereas the durable spending r...
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作者：Basso, Henrique S.; Jimeno, Juan F.
作者单位：Banco de Espana; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Demographic change and automation are two major structural trends that will shape the macroeconomy in the coming decades. We present a general equilibrium model with a tractable lifecycle structure that enables investigation of the main transmission mechanisms through which demography and technology affect economic growth. Owing to a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing lead to reductions in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share. During...
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作者：Carvalho, Carlos; Nechio, Fernanda; Tristao, Tiago
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We argue for Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation of Taylor rules despite an endogeneity bias. To that end, we show analytically in the three-equation New Keynesian model that the OLS bias is proportional to the fraction of the variance of regressors due to monetary shocks. Using simulations, we show this relationship also holds in a quantitative model of the U.S. economy. Since monetary shocks explain only a small fraction of the variance of typical Taylor rule regressors, the bias tends t...
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作者：Wolcott, Erin L.
作者单位：Middlebury College
摘要：Low-skilled prime-age men are less likely to be employed than high-skilled prime-age men, and the differential has increased since the 1970s. I build a search model encompassing three explanations: (1) automation and trade reduced the demand for low-skilled workers; (2) health, welfare, and recreational gaming/computer technology reduced the supply of low-skilled workers; and (3) factors affecting job search, such as online job boards, reduced frictions for high-skilled workers. I find a shift...
