Worker churn in the cross section and over time: New evidence from Germany

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bachmann, Ruediger; Bayer, Christian; Merkl, Christian; Seth, Stefan; Stueber, Heiko; Wellschmied, Felix
• 署名单位: University of Notre Dame; University of Bonn; University of Erlangen Nuremberg; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.05.003
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Worker churn; Employment growth; Job flows; worker flows; labor demand; Separation shocks; Job-to-Job transitions; aggregate fluctuations

摘要

Worker churn is procyclical in the German labor market. We study the plant-level connection of churn and employment growth using the new Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel from 1975 to 2014. Churn is V-shaped in employment growth. Through analyzing this pattern by worker skill, age, and tenure, we establish that churn is unlikely to result from plant reorganization but rather from uncertainty about match quality. In a dynamic labor demand framework with a time-to-hire friction, churn can be interpreted as a manifestation of idiosyncratically stochastic separation shocks. These shocks become larger and more predictable during booms, leading to procyclical churn. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.