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作者：Brauning, Falk; Ivashina, Victoria
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Foreign banks' lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle, EME borrowers experience a 32-percentage-point greater increase in the volume of loans issued by foreign banks than do borrowers from developed markets, followed by a fast credit contraction of a similar magnitude upon reversal o...
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作者：Katagiri, Mitsuru; Konishi, Hideki; Ueda, Kozo
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Waseda University
摘要：Negative correlations between inflation and aging are observed across developed nations. To understand such correlations from a politico-economic perspective, we embed the fiscal theory of the price level into an overlapping-generations model, with short-lived governments choosing tax rates and bond issues. Aging is deflationary when caused by an increase in longevity but inflationary when caused by a decline in birth rate. Over the past 40 years, aging has generated non-negligible deflationar...
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作者：Carroll, Daniel R.; Hur, Sewon
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：How are the gains and losses from trade distributed across households? We document that tradable goods and services constitute a larger fraction of expenditures for low-wealth and low-income households. Using a trade model with nonhomothetic preferences and uninsurable earnings risk, we measure the differential welfare gains from trade along the income and wealth distribution. A permanent reduction in trade costs that generates the rise in import share of GDP seen in the data from 2001 to 2014...
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作者：Keller, Wolfgang
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
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作者：Beck, Guenter W.; Lein, Sarah M.
作者单位：Universitat Siegen; University of Basel
摘要：High degrees of demand-side real rigidities are able to generate the large monetary non-neutrality found in aggregate data. This paper provides micro-based evidence on the key parameters governing this rigidity using European homescan data. We find strong evidence for demand-side real rigidity, which is, however, significantly lower than that normally assumed in macro models. In a menu-cost model calibrated to our estimates, we show that these estimates are associated with reasonable values fo...
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作者：Brendon, Charles; Paustian, Matthias; Yates, Tony
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We highlight an overlooked source of equilibrium multiplicity in monetary economies subject to a zero bound on nominal interest rates. In environments with sufficient endogenous propagation, depressed contemporary economic conditions must directly lower expectations of future output and inflation. A current recession followed by gradual convergence back to steady state may then be an equilibrium outcome, without any exogenous impulse. We present this mechanism heuristically in partial equilibr...
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作者：Leight, Jessica
作者单位：CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
摘要：This new paper by Hao, Sun, Tombe and Zhu provides valuable new evidence around the role of reduced migration costs in structural transformation in China. The paper documents the important role of migration in both growth and structural transformation over the last twenty years. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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作者：Drenik, Andres; Perez, Diego J.
作者单位：Columbia University; New York University
摘要：We analyze the manipulation of inflation statistics that occurred in Argentina starting in 2007 to test the relevance of informational frictions in price setting. We estimate that the manipulation of statistics was associated with a higher degree of price dispersion. This effect is analyzed in the context of a quantitative general equilibrium model in which firms use information about the inflation rate to set prices. Reporting inaccurate measures of the CPI entails significant welfare losses,...
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作者：Khan, Hashmat; Phaneuf, Louis; Victor, Jean Gardy
作者单位：Carleton University; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：Indeterminacy in new Keynesian models with Calvo-contracts can occur even at low trend inflation levels of 2% or 3%. The interaction of trend inflation with nominal wage rigidity and trend growth in output causes large distortions in the steady state and expands the indeterminacy region. Consequently, even interest rate rules with strong inflation responses may not be sufficient to ensure determinacy. A policy rule reacting to output growth but not to output gap significantly increases the pro...
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作者：Tanaka, Mari; Bloom, Nicholas; David, Joel M.; Koga, Maiko
作者单位：Hitotsubashi University; Stanford University; University of Southern California; Bank of Japan
摘要：Combining a unique survey of Japanese firms' GDP forecasts with accounting data for 25 years, we find three main results. First, firms' GDP forecasts are associated with their employment, investment, and output growth in the subsequent year. Second, over optimistic and pessimistic forecast errors predict lower profitability and productivity, consistent with our model of input choice under uncertainty. Third, larger and more cyclical firms make forecasts closer to professionals, presumably refl...
