Consumption dynamics under time-varying unemployment risk

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Harmenberg, Karl; Oberg, Erik
• 署名单位: Copenhagen Business School; Uppsala University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.10.004
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 350-365
• 关键词: consumption; Durables; precautionary savings; Wait-and-see effect; Real options; adjustment costs

摘要

In response to an adverse labor-market shock, a calibrated heterogeneous-agent model predicts that aggregate spending on durable goods falls mainly due to the ex-ante increase in income uncertainty caused by higher unemployment risk. In contrast, aggregate spending on nondurable goods falls mainly due to the ex-post income losses associated with realized unemployment spells. When households hold little liquid assets, the nondurable spending response is amplified, whereas the durable spending response is dampened. These differences stem from micro-level adjustment frictions involved in purchases of durable goods. The model is corroborated with evidence from micro survey data. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.