From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Basso, Henrique S.; Jimeno, Juan F.
• 署名单位: Banco de Espana; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.06.004
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Population ageing; automation; INNOVATION

摘要

Demographic change and automation are two major structural trends that will shape the macroeconomy in the coming decades. We present a general equilibrium model with a tractable lifecycle structure that enables investigation of the main transmission mechanisms through which demography and technology affect economic growth. Owing to a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing lead to reductions in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share. During the demographic transition, the extent growth and factor shares are affected depends on alternative labour market configurations and scenarios for the integration of robots into economic activity. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.