Expectation-driven boom-bust cycles

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brianti, Marco; Cormun, Vito
• 署名单位: University of Alberta; Santa Clara University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103575
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Animal spirit; Boom bust; business cycle; Sunspot

摘要

Using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we observe that a large fraction of analysts' expectations about future economic growth is not due to technology or other shocks to fundamentals measured by the business cycle literature. We find that these unexplained changes in forecast revisions predict significant boom-bust dynamics in the key macroeconomic aggregates. We offer a novel theory where boom-bust dynamics stem from expectation shocks orthogonal to fundamentals.