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作者：Ju, Jiandong; Ma, Hong; Wang, Zi; Zhu, Xiaodong
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Hong Kong Baptist University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：We provide the first quantitative evaluation of the impacts and interactions of the US-China trade wars and industrial policy competitions. We extend the model in Caliendo and Parro (2015) by incorporating sectoral external economies of scale. We find that (i) under our baseline calibration of scale economies, the Made-in-China 2025(MIC 2025) subsidies tend to improve the welfare of both China and the U.S.; (ii) the US gains from Trumpian tariffs if China does not retaliate, and the gain is la...
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作者：Lenzu, Simone
作者单位：New York University
摘要：In this paper, I offer some comments on Trade and Diffusion of Embodied Technology: An Empirical Analysis by Ayerst, Ibrahim, MacKenzie, and Rachapalli. I emphasize certain aspects of the empirical analysis that are crucial to the message and interpretation of the results. Additionally, I discuss some limitations of the empirical analysis and highlight some interesting stylized facts presented in the paper, which might be worth exploring in future research. (c) 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights re...
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作者：Bordo, Michael; Istrefi, Klodiana
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：An important and open question in monetary economics is how the Federal Reserve makes its policy decisions. We document that when an FOMC member was born, his/her educa-tional background and the Committee's changing hawk-dove composition have predictable effects on FOMC decisions. The odds of an FOMC member being a hawk are higher when he/she graduated from a university linked to the Chicago school of economics; instead, a dove likely graduated from a university with strong Keynesian beliefs a...
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作者：Gati, Laura
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：Monetary policy is analyzed in a model with a potential unanchoring of inflation expectations. The degree of unanchoring is given by how sensitively the public's long-run inflation expectations respond to inflation surprises. I find that optimal policy moves the interest rate aggressively when expectations unanchor, allowing the central bank to accommodate inflation fluctuations when expectations are well-anchored. Furthermore, I estimate the modelimplied unanchoring process. The data suggest ...
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作者：Meeks, Roland; Monti, Francesca
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Universite Catholique Louvain; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Heterogeneous beliefs modify the New Keynesian Phillips curve by introducing a term in the cross-section distribution of expectations. To take that model to the data, we develop a novel functional data approach to estimation and inference that accounts for variation in distributions of expectations. We find that this variation may be summarized using a handful of functional factors, and demonstrate their statistical and economic relevance for inflation dynamics. Our results are among the first...
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作者：Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
作者单位：IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Cologne; University of Copenhagen; Danish Finance Institute; University of Copenhagen; Danish Finance Institute
摘要：Using surveys of German firms and households, we document novel stylized facts about the extent of information frictions among the two groups. First, firms' expectations about macroeconomic variables are closer to expert forecasts and less dispersed than house-holds', consistent with higher information frictions among households. Second, the degree of dispersion and the distance from expert forecasts varies more across groups of house-holds than across groups of firms. Third, firms update thei...
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作者：Ascari, Guido; Fasani, Stefano; Grazzini, Jakob; Rossi, Lorenza
作者单位：University of Pavia; European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV; Lancaster University
摘要：A shock that increases short-term inflation expectations has negative macroeconomic effects, increasing inflation and decreasing output. The third-order solution of a rich DSGE model with firm dynamics shows that the endogenous increase in uncertainty is key for both amplifying the transmission mechanism and providing robust sign restrictions to identify the inflation expectations shock in an empirical VAR. The model, estimated using limited information impulse response matching techniques, sh...
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作者：Choi, Michael; Rocheteau, Guillaume
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine
摘要：We develop a dynamic, search-theoretic model of bank deposits markets where relationships are bilateral, the demand for liquid assets is microfounded, and consumers are privately informed about their liquidity needs. As the policy rate rises, the deposit spread widens, and aggregate deposits shrink, in accordance with the deposits channel documented in Drechsler et al. (2017). The deposit outflow originates from consumers in the lower percentiles of the distribution of deposits. As banks becom...
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作者：Zhang, Chu; Zhao, Shen
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
摘要：The quality of information environment has impact on the market risk premium and the expected risk reduction on macroeconomic announcement days. The risk premium is high when the risk is high as in standard asset pricing models, while the risk premium is low when the prevailing information environment is poor. The same is true for the expected risk reduction. These effects extend to market factor premiums (i.e., the premium associated with market betas) on various sets of portfolios and have a...
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作者：Smirnyagin, Vladimir
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：In the U.S. data, aggregate financial conditions play an important role in accounting for the formation of firms with high returns to scale. A version of a firm dynamics model with financial frictions and the ability of potential entrepreneurs to choose their returns to scale can match the data. In the estimated model, financial frictions slow the rate at which businesses with high returns to scale grow disproportionately; this discourages such firms from entering during recessions. The missin...
