Inflation: What we have learned and what we need to know

• 成果类型: Editorial Material
• 署名作者: Hatzius, Jan
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103656
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Forecasting; inflation; macroeconomics; Covid

摘要

We discuss the lessons that economic forecasters have learned about inflation since the Covid shock. First, physical shortages-e.g., in the auto sector-can push up goods prices much more dramatically than most forecasters expected following several decades near price stability. Second, imbalances in the rental housing market can sharply increase inflation and keep it high, especially in economies such as the US where rents are used to impute owner-occupied housing costs. Third, the jobs-workers gap can be a better measure of labor market balance than the unemployment rate or the employment/population ratio. Originally prepared for the Spring 2024 NBER conference on Inflation in the Covid era and beyond.