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作者：Croce, Mariano M.; Nguyen, Thien T.; Schmid, Lukas
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of Pennsylvania; Duke University
摘要：Recent fiscal interventions have raised concerns about US public debt, future distortionary tax pressure, and long-run growth potential. We explore the long-run implications of public financing policies aimed at short-run stabilization when: (i) agents are sensitive to model uncertainty, as in Hansen and Sargent (2007), and (ii) growth is endogenous, as in Romer (1990). We find that countercyclical deficit policies promoting short-run stabilization reduce the price of model uncertainty at the ...
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作者：Hollifield, Burton
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
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作者：Giglio, Stefano; Severo, Tiago
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Chicago
摘要：Purely technological factors can be a fundamental force behind the emergence of asset price bubbles in developed economies. We analyze an economy in which the production technology utilizes both physical and intangible capital, where the latter cannot be used as collateral for borrowing. Technological change, in the form of increased importance of intangible capital in production, sharpens the borrowing constraints of entrepreneurs, leading to a scarcity of high-yield assets relative to low-yi...
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作者：Alexopoulos, Michelle; Tombe, Trevor
作者单位：University of Toronto; Wilfrid Laurier University
摘要：To evaluate the effect of managerial innovations on the economy, a series of new indicators capturing these advances is constructed. Three findings emerge from the analysis. First, following a positive managerial shock, output and productivity significantly increase and hours modestly rise in the short run. Second, management innovations are generally as important as non-managerial ones in explaining movements in these variables at business cycle frequencies. Finally, product and process innov...
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作者：Bodenstein, Martin; Hebden, James; Nunes, Ricardo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：As the nominal interest rate cannot fall below zero, a central bank with imperfect credibility faces a significant challenge to stabilize the economy in a New Keynesian model during a large recession. We characterize the optimal monetary policy at the zero lower bound for the nominal interest rate if credibility is imperfect. Confronting monetary policy communication of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Swedish Riksbank with such a framework, the credibility of both institutions is shown to hav...
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作者：Bachmann, Ruediger; Sims, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; RWTH Aachen University
摘要：Is impacting confidence an important channel by which government spending shocks affect economic activity? In a standard structural VAR, an empirical measure of confidence does not significantly react to spending shocks and output multipliers are around one. In a non-linear VAR, confidence rises following an increase in spending during periods of economic slack and multipliers are much larger. The systematic response of confidence is irrelevant for the output multiplier during normal times, bu...
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作者：Ohanian, Lee E.; Raffo, Andrea
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：We build a dataset of quarterly hours worked for 14 OECD countries. We document that hours are as volatile as output, that a large fraction of labor adjustment takes place along the intensive margin, and that the volatility of hours relative to output has increased over time. We use these data to reassess the Great Recession and prior recessions. The Great Recession in many countries is a puzzle in that labor wedges are small, while those in the U.S. Great Recession - and those in previous Eur...
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作者：Adam, Klaus; Woodford, Michael
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Mannheim
摘要：We consider optimal monetary stabilization policy in a New Keynesian model with explicit microfoundations, when the central bank recognizes that private-sector expectations need not be precisely model-consistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs close enough to model-consistency. We show how to characterize robustly optimal policy without restricting consideration a priori to a particular parametric family of candidate policy rules. We s...
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作者：Behrens, Kristian; Murata, Yasusada
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Nihon University
摘要：We analyze the impact of globalization on individual gains from trade in a general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition featuring product diversity, pro-competitive effects and income heterogeneity between and within countries. Although trade reduces markups in both countries in our framework, its impact on variety depends on their relative position in the world income distribution: product diversity in the lower income country always expands, while that in the higher income country m...
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作者：Berentsen, Aleksander; Breu, Mariana Rojas; Shi, Shouyong
作者单位：University of Basel; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; University of Toronto
摘要：Many countries simultaneously suffer from high inflation, low growth and poorly developed financial sectors. In this paper, we integrate a microfounded model of money and finance into a model of endogenous growth to examine the effects of inflation on welfare, growth and the size of the financial sector. A novel feature is that the innovation sector is decentralized. Financial intermediaries arise endogenously to provide liquidity to this sector. Consistent with the data but in contrast to pre...
