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作者：Eberly, Janice; Rebelo, Sergio; Vincent, Nicolas
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal
摘要：The best predictor of current investment at the firm level is lagged investment. This lagged-investment effect is empirically more important than the cash-flow and Q effects combined. We show that the specification of investment adjustment costs proposed by Christiano et al. (2005) predicts the presence of a lagged-investment effect and that a generalized version of their model is consistent with the behavior of firm-level data from Compustat. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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作者：Ilyina, Anna; Samaniego, Roberto
作者单位：George Washington University; International Monetary Fund
摘要：In a multi-industry growth model, firms need external funds for productivity-enhancing R&D, and face financing constraints. The cost of research differs across industries, so financing constraints hinder industry productivity growth unevenly. Equilibrium industry dynamics map into a differences-in-differences regression specification where industry growth depends on the interaction between country financial development and industry R&D intensity. The paper provides a framework for interpreting...
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作者：Oh, Hyunseung; Reis, Ricardo
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Between 2007 and 2009, government expenditures increased rapidly across the OECD countries. While economic research on the impact of government purchases has flourished, in the data, most of the increase in expenditures was in government transfers. After documenting this fact, we argue that future research should focus on the positive impact of transfers. Towards this, we present a model in which there is no representative agent and Ricardian equivalence does not hold because of uncertainty, i...
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作者：Anagnostopoulos, Alexis; Carceles-Poveda, Eva; Lin, Danmo
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Motivated by the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (JGTRRA) of 2003, the effects of capital income tax cuts are investigated in an economy with heterogeneous households and a representative, mature firm. Dividend tax cuts, contrary to capital gains tax cuts, lead to a decrease in investment and capital. This is because they increase the market value of existing capital and households require a higher return to hold this additional wealth. In line with empirical evidence, the model ...
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作者：Bils, Mark; Chang, Yongsung; Kim, Sun-Bin
作者单位：University of Rochester; Yonsei University
摘要：Worker heterogeneity in productivity and labor supply is introduced into a matching model. Workers who earn high wages and work high-hours are identified as those with strong market comparative advantage high rents from being employed. The model is calibrated to match separation, job finding, and employment in the SIPP data. The model predicts a big drop in employment for workers with weak comparative advantage during recessions. But the data show that workers with strong comparative advantage...
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作者：Bidder, R. M.; Smith, M. E.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：In a real business cycle model, an agent's fear of model misspecification interacts with stochastic volatility to induce time varying worst case scenarios. These time varying worst case scenarios capture a notion of animal spirits where the probability distributions used to evaluate decision rules and price assets do not necessarily reflect the fundamental characteristics of the economy. Households entertain a pessimistic view of the world and their pessimism varies with the overall level of v...
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作者：Arellano, Cristina; Bai, Yan; Zhang, Jing
作者单位：University of Rochester; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：Using comprehensive firm-level datasets, this paper studies the impact of cross-country variation in financial market development on firms' financing choices and growth. In less financially developed economies, small firms grow faster and have lower leverage than large firms. As financial development improves, the growth difference between small and large firms shrinks, while the leverage difference rises. The paper then develops a quantitative model where financial frictions drive firm growth...
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作者：Mandelman, Federico S.; Zlate, Andrei
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Using data on border enforcement and macroeconomic indicators from the U.S. and Mexico, we estimate a two-country business cycle model of labor migration and remittances. The model matches the cyclical dynamics of unskilled migration, and documents the insurance role of remittances in consumption smoothing. Over the cycle, immigration increases with the expected stream of future wage gains, but it is dampened by a sunk emigration cost. Migration barriers slow the adjustment of the stock of imm...
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作者：Mueller, Ulrich K.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：In large Bayesian models, such as modern DSGE models, it is difficult to assess how much the prior affects the results. This paper derives measures of prior sensitivity and prior informativeness that account for the high dimensional interaction between prior and likelihood information. The basis for both measures is the derivative matrix of the posterior mean with respect to the prior mean, which is easily obtained from Markov Chain Monte Carlo output. We illustrate the approach by examining p...
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作者：Young, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Virginia
摘要：This paper considers tax policies to deal with Sudden Stops - declines in aggregate activity that are magnified by a binding collateral constraint - that occasionally occur in emerging market economies. Households and/or the government are assumed to face model uncertainty and desire robustness against alternative models. Welfare gains from optimal taxation are small if the government trusts its model of household expectations, whether those expectations are altered by model uncertainty or not...
