Robustly optimal monetary policy in a microfounded New Keynesian model

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Adam, Klaus; Woodford, Michael
• 署名单位: Columbia University; University of Mannheim
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.05.003
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 468-487
• 关键词: Robust control; Near-rational expectations; belief distortions; Target criterion

摘要

We consider optimal monetary stabilization policy in a New Keynesian model with explicit microfoundations, when the central bank recognizes that private-sector expectations need not be precisely model-consistent, and wishes to choose a policy that will be as good as possible in the case of any beliefs close enough to model-consistency. We show how to characterize robustly optimal policy without restricting consideration a priori to a particular parametric family of candidate policy rules. We show that robustly optimal policy can be implemented through commitment to a target criterion involving only the paths of inflation and a suitably defined output gap, but that a concern for robustness requires greater resistance to surprise increases in inflation than would be considered optimal if one could count on the private sector to have rational expectations. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.