Confidence and the transmission of government spending shocks
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Bachmann, Ruediger; Sims, Eric R.
署名单位：
University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; RWTH Aachen University
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
0304-3932
DOI：
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.02.005
发表日期：
2012
页码：
235-249
关键词：
摘要：
Is impacting confidence an important channel by which government spending shocks affect economic activity? In a standard structural VAR, an empirical measure of confidence does not significantly react to spending shocks and output multipliers are around one. In a non-linear VAR, confidence rises following an increase in spending during periods of economic slack and multipliers are much larger. The systematic response of confidence is irrelevant for the output multiplier during normal times, but is critical during recessions. Spending shocks during downturns predict productivity improvements through a persistent increase in government investment relative to consumption, which is reflected in higher confidence. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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