Peeling away the layers: Impacts of durable tariff elimination

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik; Henn, Christian
• 署名单位: World Trade Organization; Leibniz University Hannover; International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.09.003
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 259-276
• 关键词: Non-discriminatory trade policies; MFN tariff elimination; World trade organization; Information Technology Agreement; Trade policy certainty; Global value chains; Product-level data

摘要

We demonstrate that durable MFN tariff elimination affects trade patterns through several layers, and magnitudes of effects are sizable. The WTO Information Technology Agreement's (ITA) unique setting allows us to overcome the challenges associated with identifying effects of non-discriminatory trade policies due to two reasons: (i) ITA constitutes a quasi-natural experiment of several passive signatories joining the agreement as an unavoidable part of pursuing a larger policy objective, and (ii) ITA's partial coverage of the IT sector provides a natural control group for identification based on cross-product variation. Our analysis finds novel nonlinear impacts of tariff liberalization: Complete tariff elimination results in large additional trade gains - over and above tariff reductions - especially for intermediate goods. The commitment to durable tariff elimination, through WTO bindings, adds another two layers, boosting both imports and exports more than equivalent unilateral reforms. This commitment spurned development of a downstream IT export sector in passive signatories. (C) 2018 International Monetary Fund. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.