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作者：Kramarz, Francis; Martin, Julien; Mejean, Isabelle
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; University of Quebec; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Ecole Polytechnique
摘要：How does international trade affect the risk exposure of firms and countries? Trade induces specialization, thus increasing economies' exposure to idiosyncratic supply shocks. But greater geographic diversification in trade destinations offers natural hedging properties against demand shocks. In this paper, we offer an integrated economic and econometric view of the impact of trade on firms and countries volatility. Exporters' volatility is shown to directly depend on the (lack of) diversifica...
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作者：Gross, Till; Klein, Paul; Makris, Miltiadis
作者单位：Carleton University; Stockholm University; University of Kent
摘要：In this paper we investigate tax competition in a neoclassical growth model where each country may use both residence- and source-based capital taxes. We show that both types of capital taxes are zero at any interior steady state, just as in a closed economy. For symmetric countries, and even for countries that differ only with respect to size and productivity, we prove analytically and verify numerically that the open-economy policies coincide exactly with the closed-economy policies in all t...
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作者：Anderson, James E.; Yotov, Yoto, V
作者单位：Boston College; Drexel University
摘要：Short run gravity is a model of bilateral export trade serviced by fixed bilateral capacities (marketing capital) along with labor that is frictionlessly allocated across destinations. Long run efficient capacity allocation yields long run gravity, equivalent to the standard structural gravity model. The estimated short run trade elasticity is about 1/4 the long run trade elasticity. Capacity reallocation raised world manufacturing trade 75% in the globalization era, 1988-2006 - a solution to ...
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作者：Tripathy, Jagdish
作者单位：Bank of England
摘要：This paper studies the spillover of a macroprudential regulation in Spain to the Mexican financial system via Mexican subsidiaries of Spanish banks. The spillover caused a drop in the supply of household credit in Mexico. Municipalities with a higher exposure to Spanish subsidiaries experienced a larger contraction in household credit. These localized contractions caused a drop in macroeconomic activity in the local non-tradable sector. Estimates of the elasticity of loan demand by the non-tra...
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作者：Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kumar, Saten; Pedemonte, Mathieu
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We assess the prospects for central banks using inflation expectations as a policy tool for stabilization purposes. We review recent work on how expectations of agents are formed and how they affect their economic decisions. Empirical evidence suggests that inflation expectations of households and firms affect their actions but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear, especially for firms. Two additional limitations prevent policy-makers from being able to actively manage inflation expectatio...
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作者：Gete, Pedro; Melkadze, Givi
作者单位：IE University; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University
摘要：We analyze banking crises and lending of last resort (LOLR) in a quantitative model of financial frictions with bank defaults. LOLR policies generate a tradeoff between financial fragility (due to more highly leveraged banks) and milder crises since the policies are effective once in a crisis. In the calibrated model, the crisis mitigation effect dominates the moral hazard problem and the economy is better off having access to a lender of last resort. We characterize the conditions under which...
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作者：Alviarez, Vanessa
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：This paper shows analytically and quantitatively how omitting the striking sectoral heterogeneity of multinational production (MP) and its relationship with countries' comparative advantage leads to understate the gains from MP and openness. By construction, one-sector models of trade and MP, ignore the conflicting effects that a reduction in MP frictions has on the sectoral dispersion of MP and trade shares. On the one hand, freer MP increases the dispersion of MP shares across sectors, and w...
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作者：Yao, Wen
作者单位：Tsinghua University
摘要：In this study. I build a two-country DSGE model to investigate the impact of financial integration on business cycle co-movements with financial frictions. In this model, the investor can borrow but faces a collateral constraint that is tied to the value of her capital and real estate holdings. I show quantitatively that the degree of financial integration and real exchange rate adjustment are important for understanding business cycle synchronization under different types of shocks. With the ...
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作者：Ariu, Andrea; Breinlich, Holger; Corcos, Gregory; Mion, Girdani
作者单位：University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Surrey; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; University of Sussex
摘要：In this paper we study how international trade in goods and services interact at the firm level. Using a rich dataset on Belgian firms for the period 1995-2005, we show that: i) firms are much more likely to source services and goods inputs from the same origin country rather than from different ones; ii) joint imports are associated with higher firm productivity; iii) increases in barriers to imports of goods reduce firm-level imports of services from the same market, and conversely. We build...
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作者：Cieslak, Anna; Schrimpf, Andreas
作者单位：Duke University; Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Using evidence from four major central banks, we decompose news conveyed by central-bank communication into news about monetary policy (monetary news), as well as non-monetary news, i.e., news about economic growth and news affecting financial risk premia. Our approach exploits high-frequency comovement of stocks and interest rates combined with monotonicity restrictions across maturities in the yield curve. We find significant differences in the news composition depending on the communication...
