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作者：Stangebye, Zachary R.
作者单位：University of Notre Dame
摘要：A novel form of strategic complementarities is explored in a standard quantitative model of long-maturity sovereign debt. Discrepancies in long-run beliefs dilute current prices differently. Negative long-run beliefs become self-fulfilling if the sovereign optimally borrows more and defaults more frequently in the face of worse prices. A strong curvature in the flow utility is an important ingredient in generating this response. The intuition bears out both through a multiplicity of Markov equ...
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作者：Defever, Fabrice; Imbruno, Michele; Kneller, Richard
作者单位：City St Georges, University of London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Sapienza University Rome; University of Nottingham
摘要：We investigate theoretically and empirically the role of wholesalers in mediating the productivity effects of trade liberalization. Intermediaries provide indirect access to foreign produced inputs. The productivity effects of input tariff cuts on firms that do not directly import therefore depends on the extent that wholesalers are a feature of input supply within an industry. Using firm level data from China, we document that wholesalers play no such role for direct importers. However, other...
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作者：Caron, Justin; Fally, Thibault; Markusen, James
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Shandong University; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：Almost all of the literature about the growth of income inequality and the relationship between skilled and unskilled wages approaches the issue from the production side of general equilibrium (skill-biased technical change, international trade). We add a role for income-dependent demand interacted with factor intensities in production. We explore how income growth and trade liberalization influence the demand for skilled labor when preferences are non-homothetic and when income-elastic goods ...
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作者：Faber, Marius
作者单位：University of Basel
摘要：Robots in advanced economies have the potential to reduce employment in offshoring countries by fueling reshoring. Using robots instead of humans for production may lower the relative cost of domestic production and, in turn, reduce demand for imports from offshoring countries. I analyze the impact of robots on employment in an offshoring country, using data from Mexican local labor markets between 1990 and 2015. Recent literature estimates the effect of robots on local employment by regressin...
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作者：Fratzscher, Marcel; Grosse-Steffen, Christoph; Rieth, Malte
作者单位：Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：We study the characteristics of inflation targeting as a shock absorber, using quarterly data for a large panel of countries. To overcome an endogeneity problem between monetary regimes and the likelihood of crises, we propose to study large natural disasters. We find that inflation targeting improves macroeconomic performance following such exogenous shocks. It lowers inflation, raises output growth, and reduces inflation variability compared to alternative monetary regimes. This performance ...
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作者：Choi, Jay Pil; Furusawa, Taiji; Ishikawa, Jota
作者单位：Michigan State University; Yonsei University; University of Tokyo; Hitotsubashi University
摘要：The paper analyzes multinational enterprises' incentives to manipulate internal transfer prices to take advantage of tax differences across countries, and implications of transfer-pricing regulations as a countermeasure against such profit shifting. We find that tax-motivated foreign direct investment (FDI) may entail inefficient internal production but may benefit consumers. Thus, encouraging transfer-pricing behavior to some extent can enhance social welfare. Furthermore, we consider tax com...
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作者：Coimbra, Nuno
作者单位：Paris School of Economics
摘要：This paper develops a dynamic model with heterogeneous investors and sovereign default to analyze the dynamic link between banking sector capitalization and sovereign bond yields. The banking sector is modelled as operating under a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint, which can bind occasionally. As default risk rises, the constraint may bind, generating a fall in demand for sovereign bonds that can be accompanied by a rise in the risk premium if other agents are more risk averse. In turn, the rise...
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作者：Sunder-Plassmann, Laura
作者单位：University of Copenhagen
摘要：Emerging market governments hold mixed debt portfolios: They borrow at home and abroad in both nominal and real terms. This paper incorporates such a mixed debt structure into a theory of sovereign debt, default and inflation. The government optimally uses both default and inflation to balance its budget. The portfolio structure affects the relative benefits of inflation, default and incentives to accumulate debt. A calibrated version of the model can account for key features of the Mexican ec...
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作者：Leyva, Gustavo; Urrutia, Carlos
作者单位：Bank of Mexico; Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico; Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
摘要：We ask how labor regulation and informality affect macroeconomic volatility and the propagation of shocks in emerging economies. For this, we propose a small open economy business cycle model with frictional labor markets, endogenous labor participation, and an informal sector. Our own calculations from the ENOE national household survey reveal that these three margins are important to account for the labor market dynamics in Mexico. The model is calibrated to the Mexican economy, in particula...
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作者：Ayres, Joao; Hevia, Constantino; Pablo Nicolini, Juan
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：In this paper, we show that there is substantial comovement between prices of primary commodities such as oil, aluminum, maize, or copper and real exchange rates between developed economies such as Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom against the US dollar. We therefore explicitly consider the production of commodities in a two-country model of trade with productivity shocks and shocks to the supply of commodities. We calibrate the model so as to reproduce, among other things, the volatility...
