Volatility in the small and in the large: The lack of diversification in international trade
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Kramarz, Francis; Martin, Julien; Mejean, Isabelle
署名单位：
Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; University of Quebec; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Ecole Polytechnique
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
0022-1996
DOI：
10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.103276
发表日期：
2020
关键词：
摘要：
How does international trade affect the risk exposure of firms and countries? Trade induces specialization, thus increasing economies' exposure to idiosyncratic supply shocks. But greater geographic diversification in trade destinations offers natural hedging properties against demand shocks. In this paper, we offer an integrated economic and econometric view of the impact of trade on firms and countries volatility. Exporters' volatility is shown to directly depend on the (lack of) diversification in their portfolio of clients. Indeed, most exporters, including the largest, have one or two main clients that dwarf the others. This structure of trade networks implies that individual exporters are strongly exposed to microeconomic demand shocks. The concentration of trade flows further implies that such risk does not wash out across firms, thus contributing to aggregate fluctuations. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.