Is US trade policy reshaping global supply chains?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Freund, Caroline; Mattoo, Aaditya; Mulabdic, Alen; Ruta, Michele
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego; The World Bank; International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104011
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: International trade; US-China decoupling; TARIFFS; Global value chains

摘要

This paper examines the reshaping of supply chains using detailed US 10-digit import data between 2017 and 2022. The results show that while US-China decoupling in bilateral trade is real, supply chains remain intertwined with China. Over the period, China's share of US imports fell from 22 % to 16 % as a result of US tariffs. US imports from China are being replaced with imports from large, developing countries with revealed comparative advantage in a product. In strategic industries, countries replacing China tend to be deeply integrated in China's supply chains and are experiencing faster import growth from China. Put differently, to displace China on the export side, countries must embrace China's supply chains. There is no consistent evidence of reshoring but evidence of nearshoring to border nations. Despite the significant reshaping, China remained the top supplier of directly imported goods to the US in 2022.