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作者：Daniel, Betty C.; Jones, John Bailey
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Albany, SUNY
摘要：Financial liberalization often leads to financial crises. This link has usually been attributed to poorly designed banking systems, an explanation that is largely static. In this paper we develop a dynamic explanation, by modelling the evolution of a newly-liberalized bank's opportunities and incentives to take on risk over time. The model reveals that even if a banking system is well-designed, in the sense of having good long-run properties, many countries will enjoy an initial period of rapi...
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作者：Calvo, Guillermo; Celasun, Oya; Kumhof, Michael
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a model of optimizing forward-looking staggered price setting where even fully credible disinflations display a delayed and gradual inflation response and significant output losses. There is a welfare trade-off between these output losses and the gains from smaller inflationary distortions. For reasonable parameter values disinflation improves welfare, and more so if it is phased in gradually. The pricing assumption of our model yields dynamics that are similar to models of sticky i...
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作者：Kaminsky, Graciela
作者单位：George Washington University
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作者：Yasar, Mahmut; Paul, Catherine J. Morrison
作者单位：Emory University; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：Productivity growth may be affected particularly for developing countries by international linkages or technology transfer. We evaluate relationships between productivity and FDI, exports, imports and licensing for Turkish manufacturing plants in the apparel, textiles, and motor vehicles industries. We assess performance premia associated with these international technology transfer channels that control for plant size and location. We then use a structural model to allow for plant-specific in...
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作者：Gupta, Poonam; Mishra, Deepak; Sahay, Ratna
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Delhi School of Economics; The World Bank
摘要：This paper documents the behavior of output and its association with other macroeconomic variables in 195 episodes of currency crises in developing countries during 1970-2000. We find that about 60% of the crises are contractionary, while the rest are expansionary. Crises are one and a half times more likely to be contractionary in emerging markets than in other developing economies. The number of contractionary crises or their severity does not increase in the 1990s. Economies which experienc...
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作者：Lu, Chia-Hui
作者单位：Academia Sinica - Taiwan
摘要：This paper introduces industrial heterogeneity in R&D productivity into the quality-ladder model of the North-South trade to study how firms' choices made between R&D and foreign direct investment (FDI) vary across industries, and how such choices consequently determine the evolution of comparative advantage and trade. It shows that trade reveals product-cycle dynamics in medium-tech industries but remains static in others. High-tech industries experience continued innovation in the North with...
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作者：Devereux, Michael B.; Shi, Kang; Xu, Juanyi
作者单位：Simon Fraser University; University of British Columbia; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：This paper derives an optimal monetary policy in a world with a dollar standard, defined as an environment in which all traded goods prices are set in US dollars, so that exchange rate pass-through into the US price level is zero. We show that the US is essentially indifferent to exchange rate volatility, while the rest of the world places a high weight on exchange rate volatility. In a Nash equilibrium of the monetary policy game, US preferences dominate; the equilibrium is identical to one w...
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作者：Gopinath, Gita
作者单位：Harvard University
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作者：Xiang, Chong
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：In a two-cone Heckscher-Ohlin model with CES preferences and a continuum of goods, new northern goods increase the northern skill premium if they are skilled-labor intensive, and may increase the premium if they are unskilled-labor intensive. Thus, the introduction of new goods into US technology could have done more to increase the US skill premium than a closed-economy model would predict. I also explore how new northern goods affect the southern skill premium and what happens if they genera...
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作者：Neary, J. Peter
作者单位：University College Dublin
