Behavior of output during currency crises

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gupta, Poonam; Mishra, Deepak; Sahay, Ratna
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; Delhi School of Economics; The World Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.10.003
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 428-450
• 关键词: currency crises; Emerging markets; Developing countries; output growth; financial crises

摘要

This paper documents the behavior of output and its association with other macroeconomic variables in 195 episodes of currency crises in developing countries during 1970-2000. We find that about 60% of the crises are contractionary, while the rest are expansionary. Crises are one and a half times more likely to be contractionary in emerging markets than in other developing economies. The number of contractionary crises or their severity does not increase in the 1990s. Economies which experience capital inflows in the years prior to the crisis or an increase in external debt burden during the crisis are more likely to slow down during crises, while those with restrictions on capital flows prior to the crisis or are more open to international trade are less likely to do so. The results are robust to different ways of measuring changes in output during crises. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.