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作者：Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan; Terrones, Marco E.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Amsterdam
摘要：This paper analyzes the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database covering 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2010:4. Our analysis shows that there are strong linkages between the different phases of business and financial cycles. In particular, recessions associated with financial disruptions, notably house and equity price busts, tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions. Conversely, while recoveries following asset price busts tend to be weaker,...
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作者：Giri, Rahul
作者单位：Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
摘要：This paper connects trade flows to deviations from the law of one price (LOOP) in a structural model of trade and retailing. It accounts for the observed cross-country dispersion in prices of goods, based on retail price survey data, by focusing on two sources of goods market segmentation - (i) international trade costs, and (ii) non-traded input costs of distribution. I find that a multi-sector Ricardian trade model, ala Eaton-Kortum, augmented with a distribution sector, can account for the ...
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作者：Claessens, Stijn; Tong, Hui; Wei, Shang-Jin
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Amsterdam; Columbia University; Tsinghua University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using accounting data for 7722 non-financial firms in 42 countries, we examine how the 2007-2009 crisis affected firm performance and how various linkages propagated shocks across borders. We isolate and compare effects from changes in business cycle, international trade, and external financing conditions, on firms' profits, sales and investment using both sectoral benchmarks and firm-specific sensitivities estimated prior to the crisis. We find that the crisis had a bigger negative impact on ...
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作者：Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Sorensen, Bent; Yesiltas, Sevcan
作者单位：Koc University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Houston System; University of Houston; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：We present new stylized facts on bank and firm leverage during the period 2000-2009 using internationally comparable micro level data from many countries. We document the following patterns: a) there was an increase in leverage for investment banks prior to the sub-prime crisis; b) there was no visible increase in leverage for the typical commercial bank and non-financial firm; c) off-balance-sheet items constitute a big fraction of assets, especially for large commercial banks in the US, wher...
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作者：Canova, Fabio; Ciccarelli, Matteo
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：We investigate macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean, their similarities and convergence. A model with four indicators, roughly covering the West, the East and the Middle East and the North Africa portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Idiosyncratic causes still dominate domestic cyclical fluctuations in many countries. Convergence and divergence which coexist are local and transitory. The cyclical outlook for the next few ye...
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作者：Marshall, Kathryn G.
作者单位：California State University System; California Polytechnic State University San Luis Obispo
摘要：Using OECD input-output tables for a diverse group of 33 countries in the year 2000 and estimates of each country's factor stocks, I compute factor payments for aggregate labor and capital with value-added data adjusted for self-employment by sector. Using a detailed technology matrix for the U.S., I compute factor-specific productivity measures in each country relative to the U.S., and show that these measures are strongly correlated with the pattern of wages and rental rates. I find that man...
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作者：Chor, Davin; Manova, Kalina
作者单位：Stanford University; Singapore Management University
摘要：We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of...
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作者：Johnson, Robert C.; Noguera, Guillermo
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Columbia University
摘要：We combine input-output and bilateral trade data to compute the value added content of bilateral trade. The ratio of value added to gross exports (VAX ratio) is a measure of the intensity of production sharing. Across countries, export composition drives VAX ratios, with exporters of Manufactures having lower ratios. Across sectors, the VAX ratio for Manufactures is low relative to Services, primarily because Services are used as an intermediate to produce manufacturing exports. Across bilater...
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作者：Forbes, Kristin J.; Warnock, Francis E.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper analyzes waves in international capital flows. We develop a new methodology for identifying episodes of extreme capital flow movements using data that differentiates activity by foreigners and domestics. We identify episodes of surges and stops (sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of gross inflows) and flight and retrenchment (sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of gross outflows). Our approach yields fundamentally different results than the previous literature tha...
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作者：Bruelhart, Marius; Carrere, Celine; Trionfetti, Federico
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Geneva; Aix-Marseille Universite
