Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chor, Davin; Manova, Kalina
• 署名单位: Stanford University; Singapore Management University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.04.001
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 117-133
• 关键词: International trade; Financial crisis; credit constraints; Trade finance; Trade credit

摘要

We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of the crisis. This effect was especially pronounced in sectors that require extensive external financing, have limited access to trade credit, or have few collateralizable assets. Exports of financially vulnerable industries were thus more sensitive to the cost of external capital than exports of less vulnerable industries, and this sensitivity rose during the financial crisis. The quantitative implications of our estimates for trade volumes highlight the large real effects of financial crises and the potential gains from policy intervention. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.