ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Canova, Fabio; Ciccarelli, Matteo
• 署名单位: European Central Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.03.007
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 162-175
• 关键词: Bayesian methods; business cycles; Mediterranean basin; Developing and developed countries

摘要

We investigate macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean, their similarities and convergence. A model with four indicators, roughly covering the West, the East and the Middle East and the North Africa portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Idiosyncratic causes still dominate domestic cyclical fluctuations in many countries. Convergence and divergence which coexist are local and transitory. The cyclical outlook for the next few years is rosier for the East than for the West. (c) 2012 International Monetary Fund. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.