How do business and financial cycles interact?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Claessens, Stijn; Kose, M. Ayhan; Terrones, Marco E.
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund; University of Amsterdam
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.11.008
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 178-190
• 关键词: Credit crunches; Asset busts; booms; recessions; Recoveries; financial crises

摘要

This paper analyzes the interactions between business and financial cycles using an extensive database covering 44 countries for the period 1960:1-2010:4. Our analysis shows that there are strong linkages between the different phases of business and financial cycles. In particular, recessions associated with financial disruptions, notably house and equity price busts, tend to be longer and deeper than other recessions. Conversely, while recoveries following asset price busts tend to be weaker, recoveries associated with rapid growth in credit and house prices are often stronger. These findings emphasize the importance of financial market developments for the real economy. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.