Trade, jobs, and worker welfare

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Artuc, Erhan; Bastos, Paulo; Lee, Eunhee
• 署名单位: The World Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Seoul National University (SNU)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Trade shocks; jobs; labor mobility; adjustment costs; Worker welfare

摘要

We study the welfare effects of international trade on workers with a new dynamic general equilibrium discrete choice model of labor mobility, where the workers' choice set of jobs is endogenous. Introducing an endogenous number of job options is crucial for matching labor flows in data and quantifying the welfare effects of trade. We exploit differential exposure of sectors and regions to destination-specific demand shocks to estimate the impacts of exports on wages, employment, and labor mobility, using matched employer-employee panel data for Brazil. The same empirical strategy is also applied to estimate structural parameters and the different components of changes in model-implied worker welfare. Counterfactual simulations confirm that the welfare effects of trade are significantly magnified by the introduction of an endogenous number of job options.