Domestic linkages and the transmission of commodity price shocks

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Romero, Damian
• 署名单位: Central Bank of Chile
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104041
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Emerging economies; business cycles; commodity prices; Input-output linkages

摘要

This paper studies the role of input-output (IO) linkages in the propagation of commodity price shocks. We present empirical evidence documenting a positive correlation between commodity prices and GDP that decreases in the intensity of production linkages between the commodity sector and the rest. In a model for a small open economy, stronger linkages reduce the demand for inputs by the commodity sector, dampening the response of real GDP after a positive commodity price shock. A calibrated version of the model shows that the elasticity of GDP would be 6% lower if the commodity sector had been 5% more connected.