-
作者：Teles, Vladimir Kuehl; Zaidan, Marta
作者单位：Getulio Vargas Foundation
摘要：The goal of this paper is to evaluate the validity of the Taylor principle for inflation control in 12 developing countries that use inflation targeting regimes: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Israel, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. The test is based on a state-space model to determine when each country has followed the principle; then a threshold unit root test is used to verify if the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from its ta...
-
作者：Fleisher, Belton; Li, Haizheng; Zhao, Min Qiang
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; Central University of Finance & Economics; University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology
摘要：We show how regional growth patterns in China depend on regional differences in physical, human, and infrastructure capital as well as on differences in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. We also evaluate the impact of market reforms, especially the reforms that followed Deng Xiaoping's South Trip in 1992 those that resulted from serious hardening of budget constraints of state enterprises around 1997. We find that FDI had a much larger effect on TIP growth before 1994 than after, and we a...
-
作者：Catao, Luis A. V.; Fostel, Ana; Kapur, Sandeep
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; George Washington University; University of London; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：We show how vicious circles in countries' credit histories arise in a model where output persistence is coupled with asymmetric information about output shocks. In such an environment, default signals the borrower's vulnerability to adverse shocks and creates a pessimistic growth outlook. This translates into higher interest spreads and debt servicing costs relative to income, raising the cost of future repayments, thereby creating default traps. We build a long and broad cross-country dataset...
-
作者：Turnovsky, Stephen J.; Basher, Md. A.
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Willamette University
摘要：This paper develops a two-sector model of a developing economy and examines the role of the informal sector in limiting the government's ability to increase tax revenues. A key feature is the introduction of auditing of the informal sector and degree of tax enforcement in that sector. We emphasize the interdependence between tax policy and enforcement in achieving a developing economy's fiscal objectives and show that by judicious policy choices the presence of the informal sector need not hin...
-
作者：Robertson, Raymond; Kumar, Anil; Dutkowsky, Donald H.
作者单位：Macalester College; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Syracuse University
摘要：This paper investigates long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) between the US and Mexico. We use a panel of disaggregated price data between the US and Mexico with a long time series to look at two types of aggregation bias. The first is examined in Imbs et al. - which we refer to as estimator aggregation bias - and the second is put forth by Broda and Weinstein - hereafter, data aggregation bias. The findings indicate substantial estimator aggregation bias and data aggregation bias. Although ...
-
作者：Carranza, Luis; Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E.; Gomez-Biscarri, Javier
作者单位：Universidad Publica de Navarra; Universidad de San Martin de Porres; University of Navarra; IESE Business School
摘要：We use a panel of a hundred-plus countries with differing degrees of dollarization to perform an empirical analysis of the effects on inflation of exchange rate depreciations. The results qualify the common view that countries with higher dollarization exhibit higher inflation pass-through. We show that large depreciations tend to generate a negative impact on the pass-through coefficient, this impact being more intense the higher the level of dollarization of the economy. We interpret this as...
-
作者：Noy, Ilan
作者单位：University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa
摘要：Natural disasters have a statistically observable adverse impact on the macro-economy in the short-run and costlier events lead to more pronounced slowdowns in production. Yet, interestingly, developing countries, and smaller economies, face much larger output declines following a disaster of similar relative magnitude than do developed countries or bigger economics. A close study of the determinants of these adverse macroeconomic output costs reveals several interesting patterns. Countries wi...
-
作者：Davies, Ronald B.; Voy, Annie
作者单位：University of Oregon
摘要：This paper examines the effect of FDI on child labor. Using 1995 data for 145 countries, we find that, contrary to common fears, FDI is negatively correlated with child labor. This effect disappears when controlling for per capita income. After doing so, we find no robust effect of either FDI or international trade on child labor. This result is robust to corrections for the endogeneity of FDI, trade, and income. Furthermore, this result is confirmed using data from earlier years. This suggest...
-
作者：Demir, Firat
作者单位：University of Oklahoma System; University of Oklahoma - Norman
摘要：Using firm level panel data, we analyze the impacts of rates of return gap between financial and fixed investments under uncertainty on real investment performance in three emerging markets, Argentina, Mexico and Turkey. Employing a portfolio choice model to explain the low fixed investment rates in developing countries during the 1990s, we suggest that rather than investing in irreversible long-term fixed investments, firms may choose to invest in reversible short-term financial investments d...
-
作者：Saggi, Kamal
作者单位：Southern Methodist University
摘要：This paper analyzes MFN in a competing exporters model of trade between three countries with unequal endowments and shows that MFN yields higher aggregate welfare than tariff discrimination even as it makes low income countries worse off. Furthermore, in a repeated game of tariff cooperation, multilateral free trade is easier to sustain under MFN punishments relative to discriminatory ones. This conclusion holds even when tariff discrimination takes the form of bilateral trade agreements. Over...
