Taylor principle and inflation stability in emerging market countries

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Teles, Vladimir Kuehl; Zaidan, Marta
• 署名单位: Getulio Vargas Foundation
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2009.07.007
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 180-183
• 关键词: Taylor rule; Emerging markets; Inflation stability

摘要

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the validity of the Taylor principle for inflation control in 12 developing countries that use inflation targeting regimes: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Israel, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. The test is based on a state-space model to determine when each country has followed the principle; then a threshold unit root test is used to verify if the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from its target depends on compliance with the Taylor principle. The results show that such compliance leads to the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from its target in all cases. Furthermore, in most cases, non-compliance with the Taylor principle leads to nonstationary deviation of the expected inflation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.