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作者：Giustinelli, Pamela
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Predicting group decisions under uncertainty requires disentangling individual members' utilities over the consequences of choice, their expectations for uncertain outcomes, and their choice process as a group. I estimate simple Bayesian models of child-parent choice of high school track with subjective risk and unilateral or bilateral, nonstrategic decisions, by combining families' actual choices with novel survey information about children's and parents' subjective probabilities over choice ...
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作者：Auray, Stephane; Eyquem, Aurelien; Gomme, Paul
作者单位：Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Concordia University - Canada; Universite de Montreal
摘要：To evaluate fiscal policy reforms for Euro-area countries, this article develops and calibrates a small open economy model. Debt reduction reforms require higher tax rates in the short term in exchange for lower rates in the long term as the debt-servicing burden falls. Using the capital income tax to implement such a policy leads to welfare gains; the consumption tax, a very small welfare gain; and the labor income tax, a welfare loss. Holding fixed the long-run debt-output ratio, offsetting ...
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作者：Ciliberto, Federico; Miller, Amalia R.; Nielsen, Helena Skyt; Simonsen, Marianne
作者单位：University of Virginia; Aarhus University
摘要：We study workplace peer effects in fertility decisions using a game theory model of strategic interactions among coworkers that allows for multiple equilibria. Using register-based data on fertile-aged women working in medium-sized establishments in Denmark, we uncover negative average peer effects. Allowing for heterogeneous effects by worker type, we find that positive effects dominate across worker types defined by age or education. Negative effects dominate within age groups and among low-...
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作者：Fiorini, Luciana C.
作者单位：University of Western Australia
摘要：I present a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets in which assets pay in units of a numeraire good. In this economy, agents are constrained to negotiate the same amount of assets in different states of the world. Different from the standard result of economies with real assets, equilibrium indeterminacy can arise, depending on the structure of the financial markets. Equilibrium fails to be unique when it is not possible to transfer wealth between states in which consumers trade a p...
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作者：Kubota, Kohei; Fukushige, Mototsugu
作者单位：Yamagata University; University of Osaka
摘要：The life cycle/permanent income hypothesis (LCPIH) entails two postulates: People have rational expectations and people do not have problems with self-control. If either or both of these postulates do not apply, we cannot obtain a testable implication for the LCPIH. We use Japanese representative panel data that include responses to self-reported and retrospective questions in order to elicit behavior such as forward-looking and self-control problems. We test the rational expectations hypothes...
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作者：Bartelsman, Eric J.; Gautier, Pieter A.; De Wind, Joris
作者单位：Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy
摘要：We show empirically that high-risk sectors, which contribute strongly to aggregate productivity growth, are relatively small and have relatively low productivity growth in countries with strict employment protection legislation (EPL). To understand these findings, we develop a two-sector matching model where firms endogenously choose between a safe technology and a risky technology. For firms that have chosen the risky technology, EPL raises the costs of shedding workers in case they receive a...
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作者：Araujo, Aloisio; Berriel, Tiago; Santos, Rafael
作者单位：Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Central Bank of Brazil
摘要：In a global games setup with imperfect commitment technology, we show that low targetsthe ones close to the optimal inflation under perfect commitmentare unattainable, leading to a trade-off between low and credible targets. Moreover, since noisy public information helps to coordinate expectations around the announced target, our article supports unconventional policy prescriptions. First, weaker countries need to impose higher targets. Second, less transparency helps to make the announced tar...
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作者：Boileau, Martin; Moyen, Nathalie
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：We investigate the factors driving the unprecedented rise in corporate liquidities since the 1970s. We find that an economy-wide reduction in the cost of holding liquidities and an increase in risk best explain the rise in cash holdings and the widespread use of credit lines. The structural estimation results shed light on two widely acknowledged motives for holding cash. The precautionary motive and the liquidity motive translate risk exposure into cash holdings. Our results, however, do not ...
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作者：Cohen-Zada, Danny; Margalit, Yotam; Rigbi, Oren
作者单位：Ben-Gurion University of the Negev; Tel Aviv University
摘要：Does religiosity affect adherents' attitude toward political compromise? To address this question and overcome the potential simultaneity of religious activity and political attitudes, we exploit exogenous variation in the start date of the Selichot (Forgiveness), a period in which many Jews, including nonadherents, take part in an intense prayer schedule. Using a two-wave survey, we find that an increase in the salience of religiosity leads to the adoption of more hard-line positions against ...
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作者：Park, Joon Y.; Shintani, Mototsugu
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Sungkyunkwan University (SKKU); University of Tokyo; Vanderbilt University
摘要：This article develops a novel test for a unit root in general transitional autoregressive models, which is based on the infimum of t-ratios for the coefficient of a parametrized transition function. Our test allows for very flexible specifications of the transition function and short-run dynamics and is significantly more powerful than all the other existing tests. Moreover, we develop a large sample theory general enough to deal with randomly drifting parameter spaces, which is essential to p...
