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作者：Carroll, Daniel; Hur, Sewon
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the United States and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth, and labor skill. When tariff revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes on consumption, labor, and capital income, the average welfare loss from the trade war is equivalent to a permanent 0.1% reduction in consumption. Muc...
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作者：Jaworski, Taylor; Kitchens, Carl; Nigai, Sergey
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; National Bureau of Economic Research; State University System of Florida; Florida State University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：This article quantifies the value of U.S. highways. We develop a multisector general equilibrium model with many locations in the United States (i.e., counties) and many countries. In the model, producers choose shipping routes subject to domestic and international trade costs, endogenous congestion, and port efficiency at international transshipment points. Applying the model, we find that removing the Interstate Highway System reduces real GDP by $421-$578 billion. The results highlight the ...
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作者：Hur, Sewon
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：This article develops a quantitative heterogeneous agent-life cycle-epidemiological model that is used to study the aggregate and distributional consequences of COVID-19 and mitigation policies. First, a stay-at-home subsidy is preferred to a lockdown because it reduces deaths by more and output by less. Second, Pareto-improving policies can reduce deaths by nearly 45% without any reduction in output relative to no public mitigation. Finally, it is possible to simultaneously improve public hea...
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作者：Pram, Kym
作者单位：Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Reno
摘要：I analyze a model of monopoly insurance contracting where the consumer has access to endogenous, costly evidence of his risk type. I characterize when the consumer is worse off if the insurer is allowed to condition contracts on evidence and when the ability to contract on evidence leads to a Pareto improvement. I compare the results to an analogous setting with perfect competition: Under perfect competition, when evidence acquisition costs are low, the ability to contract on evidence is alway...
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作者：Lee, Eungik; Choi, Andrew; Choi, Syngjoo; Gueron, Yves
作者单位：New York University; University of Chicago; Seoul National University (SNU)
摘要：This article provides experimental evidence on the impacts of irreversibility and imperfect monitoring on the efficiency and the equity of a repeated public goods game. We find that irreversibility and imperfect monitoring both lead to inefficient and unequal outcomes through different channels. Irreversibility lowers public goods contribution in earlier periods and makes the initial-period contribution gap between two players long-lasting. Imperfect monitoring hampers conditional cooperation ...
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作者：Cai, Xiaoming; Gautier, Pieter; Wolthoff, Ronald
作者单位：Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of Toronto
摘要：This article shows how meeting frictions affect equilibrium trading mechanisms and allocations in an environment where identical sellers post mechanisms to compete for buyers with ex ante heterogeneous private valuations. Multiple submarkets can emerge, each consisting of all sellers posting a particular mechanism and the buyers who visit those sellers. Under mild conditions, high-valuation buyers are all located in the same submarket, and low valuation buyers can be in: (i) the same submarket...
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作者：Nason, James M.; Smith, Gregor W.
作者单位：Australian National University; University of Virginia; Queens University - Canada
摘要：Historians have suggested that there were waves of inflation or price revolutions in the United Kingdom (and earlier England) in the 13th, 16th, and 18th centuries, prior to the ongoing inflation since 1935. We study retail price inflation since 1251 and model its dynamics. The model is an AR(n) but allows for gradually evolving or drifting parameters and stochastic volatility. The long-horizon forecasts suggest only one inflation wave, that of the 20th century. We also use the model to measur...
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作者：Gratton, Gabriele; Morelli, Massimo
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作者：Albrecht, James; Decreuse, Bruno; Vroman, Susan
作者单位：Georgetown University; Aix-Marseille Universite; Georgetown University
摘要：When vacancies are filled, the job ads often remain, creating phantom vacancies. Older listings more likely represent phantoms. We assume job seekers direct their search based on listing age. Forming a match with an age-a vacancy creates an age-a phantom with probability beta and generates an externality affecting vacancies aged a and older. Thus, the externality decreases with the match's listing age. Relative to efficient behavior, job seekers overapply to younger listings. We calibrate usin...
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作者：Ma, Eunseong
作者单位：Yonsei University
摘要：This article studies a labor-supply-side channel affecting the relationship between monetary policy and income inequality. To this end, I build a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian economy with indivisible labor in which both macro and micro labor supply elasticities are endogenously generated. First, I find that monetary policy shocks have distributional consequences due to a substantial heterogeneity in labor supply elasticity across households. Second, a more equal economy is associated with...
