ON THE DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONAL TARIFFS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carroll, Daniel; Hur, Sewon
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.12648
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 1311-1346
• 关键词: capital-skill complementarity; idiosyncratic risk; UNITED-STATES; TRADE; insurance; MODEL; progressivity; TECHNOLOGY; INEQUALITY; earnings

摘要

We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the United States and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth, and labor skill. When tariff revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes on consumption, labor, and capital income, the average welfare loss from the trade war is equivalent to a permanent 0.1% reduction in consumption. Much larger welfare losses are concentrated among retirees and low-wealth households, whereas only wealthy households experience a welfare gain.