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作者：Koop, Gary; Korobilis, Dimitris
作者单位：University of Strathclyde; University of Glasgow; University of Glasgow
摘要：This article addresses the issue of inference in time-varying parameter regression models in the presence of many predictors and develops a novel dynamic variable selection strategy. The proposed variational Bayes dynamic variable selection algorithm allows for assessing at each time period in the sample which predictors are relevant (or not) for forecasting the dependent variable. The algorithm is used to forecast inflation using over 400 macroeconomic, financial, and global predictors, many ...
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作者：Azinovic, Marlon; Gaegauf, Luca; Scheidegger, Simon
作者单位：University of Zurich; University of Zurich; University of Lausanne
摘要：introduce deep equilibrium nets (DEQNs)-a deep learning-based method to compute approximate functional rational expectations equilibria of economic models featuring a significant amount of heterogeneity, uncertainty, and occasionally binding constraints. DEQNs are neural networks trained in an unsupervised fashion to satisfy all equilibrium conditions along simulated paths of the economy. Since DEQNs approximate the equilibrium functions directly, simulating the economy is computationally chea...
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作者：Bai, Ying
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：By exploiting immigrant spatial variation in 287 prefectures, this study shows that the 1127-30 Han migration southward in historic China had a significantly positive effect on economic prosperity in the year 2000 (as measured by GDP and nighttime lights per capita). One possible explanation is that the migrant-local competition since the implementation of the imperial civil service examination has incentivized both migrants and locals to invest in education to better compete with their rivals...
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作者：Bobba, Matteo; Flabbi, Luca; Levy, Santiago
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Brookings Institution
摘要：We develop a search and matching model where jobs can be formal or informal. Workers choose schooling and search for jobs. Firms post vacancies in each schooling market and decide the job's formality status. Upon meeting, workers and firms bargain over wages. The equilibrium size of the informal sector is an endogenous function of labor market fundamentals and institutions. We estimate the model using labor force survey data from Mexico and exploiting the exogenous variation induced by a nonco...
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作者：Okazaki, Tetsuji; Onishi, Ken; Wakamori, Naoki
作者单位：University of Tokyo; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Strategic interaction among firms may hinder the reduction of excess capacity in a declining industry. Policy interventions that attempt to reduce excess capacity may increase efficiency by accelerating the capital adjustment but may decrease efficiency by increasing the market power of firms and/or by distorting firms' divestment decisions. We study capacity coordination policies-forcing firms to reduce their capacity simultaneously-applied to the Japanese cement industry. Estimation results ...
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作者：Feldkircher, Martin; Huber, Florian; Koop, Gary; Pfarrhofer, Michael
作者单位：Salzburg University; University of Strathclyde
摘要：Panel vector autoregressions (PVARs) are a popular tool for analyzing multicountry data sets. However, the number of estimated parameters can be enormous, leading to computational and statistical issues. In this article, we develop fast Bayesian methods for estimating PVARs using integrated rotated Gaussian approximations. We exploit the fact that domestic information is often more important than international information and group the coefficients accordingly. Fast approximations are used to ...
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作者：Angelucci, Charles; Russo, Antonio
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Loughborough University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：When offering incentive schemes to low-ranking officials, a tension exists between the dual goals of enforcing regulations and preventing corruption. Recent efforts to curb abuses have inspired government interest in using new communication technologies to collect information directly from citizens. We propose a model where a corruptible official is tasked with recommending the government to grant or deny the permit an entrepreneur needs to undertake production. The government tolerates corrup...
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作者：Mancino, M. Antonella
作者单位：Wilfrid Laurier University
摘要：A large fraction of disadvantaged young individuals makes money from crime, and yet their labor market is usually studied ignoring the presence of the criminal sector. Consistent with the empirical evidence, I build a two-sector model of frictional labor search to study crime and employment outcomes jointly, and estimate it using a panel data set of young offenders. I use the model to illustrate sizable interactions between sectors, and show that, aiming at the same reduction in crime, policie...
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作者：Schlee, Edward E.; Khan, M. Ali
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：Once a popular tool to estimate welfare changes, the money metric of McKenzie-Samuelson gradually faded from use after welfare theorists and practitioners argued that it led to inegalitarian recommendations. We prove that, at a competitive equilibrium price, any associated competitive allocation maximizes the money-metric sum; and, as is well understood, competitive allocations can be egalitarian or inegalitarian. The result applies to economies in which individual demand is not rationalizable...
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作者：Yuksel, Sevgi
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：When citizens are differentiated by how much they care about different issues informing policy, specialization allows them to concentrate their learning on the issues that are most important to them. However, as different citizens focus on different issues, the electorate becomes less responsive to party platforms. In particular, equilibrium policies polarize more in fractionalized societies in which there is greater disagreement about which issues matter the most. When the learning technology...
