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作者：Li, Jiangtao; Wang, Kexin
作者单位：Singapore Management University; Capital University of Economics & Business
摘要：We study contract design when the principal has limited information about the output distributions induced by the agent's actions. In a baseline model where only the means are known, we show that increasing affine contracts are robustly optimal. The mean restrictions accommodate a wide range of output distributions, including extreme cases that help establish this optimality. We then extend the analysis to environments with additional constraints on the distributions. Our main result shows tha...
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作者：Cotoc, Johnny; Johri, Alok; Sosa-Padilla, Cesar
作者单位：McMaster University; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Nations with a higher propensity to elect left governments tend to pay higher and more volatile sovereign spreads. We build a sovereign default model with elections between left and right policymakers. Reelection probabilities increase with government spending, with the left having a small advantage (consistent with the data). We use variation in election efficiency to create model economies that elect the left more (left leaning) or less frequently (right leaning) in equilibrium. The left-lea...
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作者：Chiavari, Andrea; Morazzoni, Marta; Smirnov, Danila
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper studies aggregate markup cyclicality through firm-level heterogeneity, reallocation, and aggregation. Using the U.S. firm data for 1990-2016, we find that markups are procyclical for young firms and countercyclical for older firms following monetary policy shocks. Economic activity also reallocates modestly toward young firms. As the firm population ages, the aggregate markup response shifts from acyclical or mildly procyclical to countercyclical. These findings help reconcile confl...
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作者：Suzuki, Yuta
作者单位：Hitotsubashi University
摘要：This paper studies how population aging shapes regional adjustment to local shocks. I develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model that incorporates aggregate demographic change, life-cycle variation in migration and employment choices, and forward-looking investment in local capital. Applying the model to Japan, I find that aging can mitigate welfare losses from a negative local shock. Although older populations are less mobile, reduced outmigration sustains local capital demand and sl...
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作者：Shao, Lin; Sohail, Faisal; Yurdagul, Emircan
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Greensboro; University of Melbourne; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Larger firms feature (i) longer hours worked, (ii) higher wages, and (iii) smaller (larger) wage penalties for working long (short) hours. We reconcile these patterns in a general equilibrium model, which features the endogenous interaction of hours, wages, and firm size. In the model, workers willing to work longer hours sort into larger firms that offer a wage premium. Complementarities in hours generate wage penalties that increase with the distance from the usual hours. We use the model to...
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作者：Saka, Orkun; Ji, Yuemei; Minaudier, Clement
作者单位：University of London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of London; University College London
摘要：We show that politicians facing a binding term limit are more likely to engage in financial deliberalization than those facing reelection, but only in the wake of a financial crisis. In particular, they implement policies that tend to favor incumbent financial institutions over the general population, such as increasing barriers to entry in the banking sector. We propose a conceptual framework and several mechanisms to rationalize this behavior and show that revolving doors between the governm...
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作者：Dubey, Pradeep; Geanakoplos, John
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; Yale University; The Santa Fe Institute
摘要：Modern macroeconomics ignores the recent proliferation of new monies. We show in our model that new monies like credit cards or stable coins or crypto currencies or helicopter money can cause a huge increase in prices, like the 1970s inflation when credit cards emerged in full use. These monies are not perfect substitutes, so shrinking conventional money supply to compensate for the growth of new monies comes at a welfare cost. Price levels are determined by money chasing goods, measured by th...
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作者：Atesagaoglu, Orhan Erem; Yazici, Hakki
作者单位：Sabanci University; University of Bristol
摘要：We analyze the implications of the decline in labor's share in national income for optimal Ramsey taxation. It is optimal to accompany the decline in labor share by raising capital taxes only if the labor share is falling because of a decline in competition or other mechanisms that raise the share of pure profits. This result holds under various alternative institutional arrangements that are relevant for optimal taxation of capital income. A quantitative application to the US economy shows th...
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作者：Chernis, Tony; Hauzenberger, Niko; Huber, Florian; Koop, Gary; Mitchell, James
作者单位：Bank of Canada; University of Strathclyde; Salzburg University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：Based on agent opinion analysis theory, Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) is a framework for combining predictive distributions in the face of model uncertainty. In this article, we generalize existing parametric implementations of BPS by showing how to combine competing probabilistic forecasts using interpretable Bayesian tree-based machine learning methods. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach-in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability-via two macroeconomic foreca...
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作者：Smith, Eric; Xie, Zoe; Fang, Lei
作者单位：University of Essex; The World Bank; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：From 2006 until 2020, the probability of selling a house in the U.S. declined sharply after listing for 2 weeks. Moreover, sales within the first 2 weeks of listing (quick sales) and sales happening afterward (slow sales) behaved differently over the housing cycle. The probability and associated price of a quick sale recovered from the slump sooner, faster, and more prominently than a slow sale. This paper demonstrates that a calibrated stock-flow matching model not only generates quantitative...
