Heterogeneous Markups Cyclicality and Monetary Policy

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Chiavari, Andrea; Morazzoni, Marta; Smirnov, Danila
• 署名单位: University of Oxford; University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.70109
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: inflation dynamics; panel-data; BEHAVIOR; adjustment; frequency; GROWTH; COSTS; rates; US

摘要

This paper studies aggregate markup cyclicality through firm-level heterogeneity, reallocation, and aggregation. Using the U.S. firm data for 1990-2016, we find that markups are procyclical for young firms and countercyclical for older firms following monetary policy shocks. Economic activity also reallocates modestly toward young firms. As the firm population ages, the aggregate markup response shifts from acyclical or mildly procyclical to countercyclical. These findings help reconcile conflicting evidence on markup cyclicality and imply that firm demographics shape monetary-policy transmission and the roles of demand and supply shocks in business cycles.