The Short and the Long of It: Stock-Flow Matching in the US Housing Market

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Smith, Eric; Xie, Zoe; Fang, Lei
• 署名单位: University of Essex; The World Bank; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/iere.70073
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: residential real-estate; price; DYNAMICS; time; search; liquidity; MODEL; unemployment; performance; shocks

摘要

From 2006 until 2020, the probability of selling a house in the U.S. declined sharply after listing for 2 weeks. Moreover, sales within the first 2 weeks of listing (quick sales) and sales happening afterward (slow sales) behaved differently over the housing cycle. The probability and associated price of a quick sale recovered from the slump sooner, faster, and more prominently than a slow sale. This paper demonstrates that a calibrated stock-flow matching model not only generates quantitatively consistent sales, prices, listings, and time on the market but also captures distinctions between fast and slow sales over the housing cycle.