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作者：McGrattan, ER; Prescott, EC
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：Many stock market analysts think that in 1929, at the time of the crash, stocks were overvalued. Irving Fisher argued just before the crash that fundamentals were strong and the stock market was undervalued. In this article, we use growth theory to estimate the fundamental value of corporate equity and compare it to actual stock valuations. Our estimate is based on values of productive corporate capital, both tangible and intangible, and tax rates on corporate income and distributions. The evi...
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作者：Hernández-Murillo, R; Knowles, J
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：State-wide reports on police traffic stops and searches summarize very large populations, making them potentially powerful tools for identifying racial bias, particularly when statistics on search outcomes are included. But when the reported statistics conflate searches involving different levels of police discretion, standard tests for racial bias are not applicable. This article develops a model of police search decisions that allows for non discretionary searches and derives tests for racia...
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作者：Besfamille, M
作者单位：Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：A hierarchical model of collusion in local public works is presented. A local authority plans to undertake a project, delegating its construction to a construction firm. Both of them know the project's cost. However, the federal government decides whether to subsidize the project without knowing its cost. Therefore, the local authority and the constructor may agree to misreport their private information, in order to benefit from the allocation of federal grants. We show that different collusiv...
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作者：Temzelides, T; Yu, JL
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; Princeton University
摘要：We introduce lack-of-recall of past transactions as an alternative assumption to anonymity in a model where trade is centralized. In environments where there is an intertemporal lack-of-double-coincidence of wants problem and lack-of-commitment, lack-of-recall can give rise to monetary equilibria that dominate nonmonetary outcomes in terms of welfare.
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作者：Eichberger, J; Kelsey, D
作者单位：Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; University of Exeter; University of Birmingham
摘要：If players' beliefs are strictly nonadditive, the Dempster-Shafer updating rule can be used to define beliefs off the equilibrium path. We define an equilibrium concept in sequential two-person games where players update their beliefs with the Dempster-Shafer updating rule. We show that in the limit as uncertainty tends to zero, our equilibrium approximates Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We argue that our equilibrium can be used to define a refinement of Bayesian Nash equilibrium by imposing conte...
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作者：Shi, S; Temzelides, T
作者单位：University of Toronto; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：We analyze bureaucracy and corruption in a market with decentralized exchange and lemons. Exchange is modeled as a sequence of bilateral, random matches. Agents have private information about the quality of goods they produce and can supplement trade with socially inefficient bribes. Bureaucracy is modeled as a group of agents who enjoy centralized production and consumption. Transaction patterns between the bureaucracy and the private sector are fully endogenous. Centralized production and co...
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作者：Barelli, P; Pessôa, SD
作者单位：University of Rochester
摘要：We show that Bailey's rule holds true in Cole and Stockman's (1992) model of endogenous specialization.
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作者：Del Negro, M; Schorfheide, F
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：This article uses a simple New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model as a prior for a vector autoregression, and shows that the resulting model is competitive with standard benchmarks in terms of forecasting, and can be used for policy analysis.
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作者：Lang, K; Majumdar, S
作者单位：Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Queens University - Canada
摘要：This article examines nonsequential search when jobs vary with respect to nonpecuniary characteristics. In the presence of frictions in the labor market, the equilibrium job distribution need not show evidence of compensating wage differentials. The model also generates several pervasive features of labor markets: unemployment and vacancies, apparent discrimination, and market segmentation. When workers are homogeneous, restrictions on the range of job offers decrease welfare and cannot reduce...
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作者：Boldrin, M; Levine, DK
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：In the modern theory of growth, monopoly plays a crucial role both as a cause and an effect of innovation. Innovative firms, it is argued, would have insufficient incentive to innovate should the prospect of monopoly power not be present. This theme of monopoly runs throughout the theory of growth, international trade, and industrial organization. We argue that monopoly is neither needed for, nor a necessary consequence of innovation. In particular, intellectual property is not necessary for, ...
