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作者：Guzman, Martin; Stiglitz, Joseph E.
作者单位：Columbia University; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper provides an explanation for situations in which the fundamental state variables describing the economy do not change, but aggregate consumption experiences significant changes. We present a theory of pseudo-wealth-individuals' perceived wealth that is derived from expectations of gains in bets arising from heterogeneous expectations. This wealth is divorced from society's real assets. The creation of a market for bets necessarily generates positive pseudo-wealth. Changes in the magn...
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作者：Kabatek, Jan; Ribar, David C.
作者单位：University of Melbourne; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Tilburg University; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University
摘要：Are couples with daughters more likely to divorce than couples with sons? Using Dutch registry and US survey data, we show that couples with daughters face higher risks of divorce, but only when daughters are 13- to 18-years-old. These age-specific results run counter to explanations involving overarching, time-invariant preferences for sons and sex-selection into live birth. We propose another explanation that involves relationship strains in families with teenage daughters. In subsample anal...
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作者：Fetzer, Thiemo; Schwarz, Carlo
作者单位：University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Bocconi University
摘要：We use the recent trade escalation between the USA and its trade partners to study whether retaliatory tariffs are politically targeted. We find comprehensive evidence using individual and aggregate voting data suggesting that retaliation is carefully targeted to hurt Trump. We develop a simulation approach to construct counterfactual retaliation responses allowing us to quantify the extent of political targeting while also studying potential trade-offs. China appears to place great emphasis o...
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作者：Cruz, Cesi; Keefer, Philip; Labonne, Julien
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Inter-American Development Bank; University of Oxford
摘要：Despite the prominence of information in theories of electoral accountability, providing voters with information often fails to improve politician performance. Using two experiments in the Philippines, we show that when voters are unfamiliar with basic government capabilities, merely informing them of what politicians could do is sufficient to decrease support for incumbents. However, politicians can counteract this decrease in support by increasing clientelistic practices such as vote buying....
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作者：Thaler, Dominik
作者单位：Banco de Espana
摘要：Why do governments borrow internationally? Why do they temporarily remain out of international financial markets after default? This paper develops a quantitative model of sovereign default to propose a unified answer to these questions. In the model, the government has an incentive to borrow internationally since the domestic return on capital exceeds the world interest rate, due to a friction in the banking sector. Since banks are exposed to sovereign debt, sovereign default causes a financi...
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作者：Dellas, Harris; Niepelt, Dirk
作者单位：University of Bern; Study Center Gerzensee
摘要：We study the optimal debt and investment decisions of a sovereign with private information. The separating equilibrium is characterised by a cap on the current account. A sovereign repays debt amount due that exceeds default costs in order to signal creditworthiness and smooth consumption. Accepting funding conditional on investment/reforms relaxes borrowing constraints, even when investment does not create collateral, but it depresses current consumption. The model contains the signalling ele...
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作者：Gali, Jordi; van Rens, Thijs
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; University of Warwick
摘要：We document two changes in post-war US macroeconomic dynamics: the procyclicality of labour productivity vanished, and the relative volatility of employment rose. We propose an explanation for these changes that is based on reduced hiring frictions due to improvements in information about the quality of job matches and the resulting decline in turnover. We develop a simple model with hiring frictions and variable effort to illustrate the mechanisms underlying our explanation. We show that our ...
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作者：Egorov, Georgy; Sonin, Konstantin
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Chicago; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
摘要：Free and fair elections are the cornerstone of a democratic system, but elections are common in other regimes as well. Such an election might be a pure farce, with the incumbents getting close to 100% of the vote. In other instances, incumbents allow opposition candidates to be on the ballot and run campaigns, limit electoral fraud, e.g., by inviting international observers, all to make elections appear fair. In our model, the incumbent is informed about his popularity, and having a fair elect...
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作者：Herz, Holger; Huber, Martin; Maillard-Bjedov, Tjasa; Tyahlo, Svitlana
作者单位：University of Fribourg
摘要：Differences in patience across language groups have recently received increased attention in the literature. We provide evidence on this issue by measuring time preferences of French and German speakers from a bilingual municipality in Switzerland where institutions are shared and socio-economic conditions are very similar across the two language groups. We find that French speakers are significantly more impatient than German speakers, and differences are particularly pronounced when payments...
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作者：Barro, Robert J.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：The national-income accounts double-count investment, which enters once when it occurs and again in present value as rental income on added capital. The double counting implies that GDP and national income overstate sustainable consumption. An alternative measure, 'permanent income', equals consumption in the steady state but deviates from consumption outside of the steady state because expensing of gross investment applies to the long-run flow, not the current value. The permanent-income pers...
