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作者：COCHRANE, JH
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper uses two-variable autoregressions to characterize transitory components in GNP and stock prices. Shocks to GNP holding consumption constant are almost entirely transitory, and account for large fractions of the variance of GNP growth. If consumption does not change, consumers must think that any GNP change is transitory. The facts that the consumption/GNP ratio forecasts GNP growth and that consumption is nearly a random walk drive this result. An implication is that consumption pro...
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作者：RAJAN, RG
摘要：In a rational profit-maximizing world, banks should maintain a credit policy of lending if and only if borrowers have positive net present value projects. Why then are changes in credit policy seemingly correlated with changes in the condition of those demanding credit? This paper argues that rational bank managers with short horizons will set credit policies that influence and are influenced by other banks and demand side conditions. This leads to a theory of low frequency business cycles dri...
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作者：EVANS, WN; KESSIDES, IN
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：This paper examines empirically the effects of multimarket contact on pricing in the U. S. airline industry. The analysis of the time-series and cross-sectional variability of airline fares in the 1000 largest domestic city-pair routes reveals the presence of statistically significant and quantitatively important multimarket effects-fares are higher in city-pair markets served by carriers with extensive interroute contacts. These findings are consistent with the claims of industry experts that...
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作者：FRANKEL, JA; LOWN, CS
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：The term-structure slope contains information about expected future inflation. Mishkin shows that the spread between the twelve-month and three-month interest rates helps predict the difference between twelve-month and three-month inflation. We apply a simple existing framework, which lets the real interest rate vary in the short run but converge to a constant in the long run, to this problem. The appropriate indicator of expected inflation uses the entire length of the yield curve, estimating...
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作者：ASQUITH, P; GERTNER, R; SCHARFSTEIN, D
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：This paper analyzes the ways in which financially distressed firms try to avoid bankruptcy through public and private debt restructurings, asset sales, mergers, and capital expenditure reductions. Our main finding is that a firm's debt structure affects the way financially distressed firms restructure. The combination of secured private debt and numerous public debt issues seems to impede out-of-court restructurings and increases the probability of a Chapter 11 filing. In addition, we find tha...
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作者：RIVERABATIZ, L; ROMER, PM
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
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作者：WEIL, DN
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Examination of household (micro) data on the elderly has generally concluded that they do not dissave significantly, whereas estimates using aggregate (macro) data have shown that the presence of a large elderly population leads to a lower saving rate. This paper shows that if interactions between generations are important, one would not expect these estimates to be the same. The paper presents new evidence that bequests are plausibly the source of this discrepancy. Examination of data from yo...
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作者：Kremer, M
摘要：The nonrivalry of technology, as modeled in the endogenous growth literature, implies that high population spurs technological change. This paper constructs and empirically tests a model of long-run world population growth combining this implication with the Malthusian assumption that technology limits population. The model predicts that over most of history, the growth rate of population will be proportional to its level. Empirical tests support this prediction and show that historically, amo...
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作者：YOUNG, A
摘要：The influence of Schumpeter's notion of ''creative destruction'' may have led to an overemphasis on substitution between technologies in recent models of endogenous innovation. Historical examples of technological change suggest that new technologies may just as frequently complement older technologies, creating, rather than destroying, rents. Acknowledgment of the potential for both substitution and complementarity among inventions allows for a much richer characterization of the growth proce...
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作者：KIRMAN, A
摘要：This paper offers an explanation of behavior that puzzled entomologists and economists. Ants, faced with two identical food sources, were observed to concentrate more on one of these, but after a period they would turn their attention to the other. The same phenomenon has been observed in humans choosing between restaurants. After discussing the nature of foraging and recruitment behavior in ants, a simple model of stochastic recruitment is suggested. This explains the ''herding'' and ''epidem...
